Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI
Survation have conducted a poll for the Daily Mirror, the fieldwork was yesterday and today, they polled 1,106 respondents.
As usual they have an all voters Voting Intention, and also applied a likelihood to vote (LTV) filter, but additionally this time, they’ve added an additional weighting measure. Respondents who were not aware of the day of the European Parliament Election was, had their likelihood to vote reduced to 0.6 of their expressed likelihood to vote. (So this is what the LTV & awareness tab in the above graph is.)
For example 81% of UKIP supporters are aware that the Euros are taking place this Thursday, compared with 70% of Tories & Lib Dems, for Labour supporters it is 62%, for other party supporters is 57%. For all voters it is 62%, 57% of Undecideds were aware that the Euros are on Thursday. Overall this means 38% of voters aren’t aware the Euros are taking place on Thursday. 18% Don’t know, and 14% think they are taking place between next week and May 2015.
This fits in with Corporeal’s earlier analysis that UKIP voters are more passionate when it comes to the Euros and makes it likely that UKIP will win the Euros.
One of the great unknowns in UK politics for the next year is, how will the Kippers vote in a General Election, fortunately Survation have asked that question.
Crux of it is that 71% of European Election Voting UKIPpers will vote UKIP at the GE.
Survation also polled on Westminster VI.
@Survation Westminster VI poll (changes since 9th of May
Con 28 (nc) Lab 34 (nc) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 20 (nc)
— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 20, 2014
UDPATE – The YouGov Euros poll for the Sun has it neck and neck
YouGov/Sun poll for Euro elections – Labour and Ukip neck and neck going into the final day: CON 23%, LAB 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 27%, GRN 8%
— Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) May 20, 2014
Whilst the YouGov Westminster VI has
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 – Labour lead drops to two points: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%
— Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) May 20, 2014