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Month: April 2014

Introducing a new tracker: the 2010 LD switchers to LAB – the voters who form Labour’s “crutch”

Introducing a new tracker: the 2010 LD switchers to LAB – the voters who form Labour’s “crutch”

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What’s the trend? Is this key group getting smaller or larger? On Friday there was a lot of discussion on the thread about the detail from the latest Populus online poll which seemed to point to a big reduction in the proportion of 2010 LDs who are now saying they’ll vote LAB. Was this this just a sampling issue or were we seeing a trend that could change our whole view of the GE2015 outcome? Well this was a subset…

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Have you been on the weekend IndyRef betting roller coaster?

Have you been on the weekend IndyRef betting roller coaster?

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As can be seen from Betfair chart big fluctuations in #IndyRef YES price over w/e. Now 26.3% chance. Was 41%+ pic.twitter.com/IfPf0E3RlQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2014 Making money betting on the betting It’s been an extraordinary, and for some profitable, weekend on the Betfair IndyRef markets which have seen huge fluctuations in the YES price. What’s good from a punting point of view is that is is one of the few political betting markets which are now liquid…

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The LDs slump to just 7 percent in the first two of tonight’s poll while UKIP soar

The LDs slump to just 7 percent in the first two of tonight’s poll while UKIP soar

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The Yellows could be paying the price for Clegg’s debate gamble Just 19% of GE2010 LD voters tell ComRes IoS/S Mirror poll that they've a favourable view of Nick Clegg. 52% say unfavourable. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 12, 2014 ComRes: Cameron showed "serious lack of leadership over his handling of Maria Miller’s expenses" Agree 62% Disagree 15% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 12, 2014 ComRes/IoS S Mirror: My family is better off now than at the GE2010 Agree 20% Disagree 59%…

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Swingback is happening – how far will it go?

Swingback is happening – how far will it go?

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Crossover may be in sight but crossover isn’t enough for Dave The Omnishambles Budget of 2012 was perhaps Ed Miliband’s high point of the parliament. In that response, he set the political narrative for at least a Summer and put the government, and George Osborne in particular, right on the back foot. He introduced a readily reusable slogan and one which penetrated well into public consciousness. Unsurprisingly, translated into healthy opinion poll leads, reversing the brief bounce the Tories enjoyed…

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Labour needs to take 69 of these seats to secure a majority

Labour needs to take 69 of these seats to secure a majority

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The 106 seats @UKLabour has targeted in 2015: @marcusaroberts pic.twitter.com/ELuEw789jr — Election-data (@election_data) April 11, 2014 Your guide to the LAB targets Thanks to the compiler of the @election_data Twitter feed for this latest map showing where they key LAB targets are located. For details of the seats themselves check out the UKPollingReport LAB target list with the names of the seats, their ranking, which party is defending and the size of the majority. The seat that is on the…

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Local By-Election Results : April 10th 2014: Full round up

Local By-Election Results : April 10th 2014: Full round up

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Some good UKIP perforances in terms of votes but no seats Belle Vue on Cumbria (Labour Defence) Result: Labour 565 (46% -20%), Conservative 435 (35% +1%), UKIP 234 (19%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 130 (11%) on a swing of 11% from Labour to Conservative Flint, Trelawny on Flintshire (Labour Defence) Result: Labour 350 (39% -33%), UKIP 261 (29%), Independent 242 (27% +8%), Conservative 54 (6%) Labour HOLD woith a majority of 89 (10%) on a swing of 31%…

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The jobs of one or more of Dave/Ed/Nigel/Nick could be on the line if the May 22nd elections don’t meet expectations

The jobs of one or more of Dave/Ed/Nigel/Nick could be on the line if the May 22nd elections don’t meet expectations

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This could be a very dangerous period for all 4 leaders On May 22nd there are the Euro Elections and as well, for 58% of voters nationwide, local elections. This will be the biggest electoral test before the May 7 2015 general election. The outcomes could impact on the futures of all four main party leaders. Parts of the Conservative party have never been reconciled to David Cameron and he’s still blamed in some quarters for failing to win a…

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