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Month: April 2014

Local By-Election Results: April 24th 2014

Local By-Election Results: April 24th 2014

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Blackwood on Caerphilly (Labour Defence) Result: Lab 620 (41% -10%), Ind 477 (32% +6%), Plaid 349 (23% +9%), Con 68 (4% -4%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 143 (9%) on a swing of 8% from Labour to Independent Turnout: 24.3% Sutton on East Cambridgeshire (Conservative Defence) Result: Lib Dem 523 (51%), Con 280 (27%), UKIP 162 (16%), Lab 63 (6%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 243 (24%) Turnout: 33% Horncastle on East Lindsey (Conservative defence)…

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Stand by for Ed’s next unlikely election victory. CON win most votes: LAB win most seats even possibly a majority

Stand by for Ed’s next unlikely election victory. CON win most votes: LAB win most seats even possibly a majority

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The Ladbrokes 5/1 is the best GE2010 bet there is We all remember that moment on September 25th 2010 when Ed Miliband just squeezed past his brother, David, in the election for LAB leader. It was a huge shock for almost everybody including the Westminster village which had decided a long time earlier that the elder Miliband would be Brown’s successor. In cash terms this was my biggest political bet ever and I bought a new car on the winnings….

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Local By-Election Preview: April 24th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: April 24th 2014

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Blackwood on Caerphilly (Labour Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 27) Result of last election in ward (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,116, 966, 946 (51%) Independents 833, 719 (26%) Plaid Cymru 352, 253, 235 (14%) Conservatives 182, 148, 144 (8%) Candidates duly nominated: Andrew Farina-Childs (Plaid Cymru), Cameron Muir-Jones (Con), Allan Rees (Lab), Keith Smallman (Ind) When Caerphilly was created it seems to be another example of…

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The betting markets have yet to move on Farage’s claim that UKIP will hold balance of power at GE2015

The betting markets have yet to move on Farage’s claim that UKIP will hold balance of power at GE2015

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William Hills http://t.co/xwjAlkObCQ make it 4/7 UKIP won't win a seat at GE2015 Indy story http://t.co/si9chPFuF2 pic.twitter.com/IEfn7UNfeW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2014 Farage’s achilles heel: UKIP’s the least liked & most disliked party Mike Smithson Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter Follow @MSmithsonPB

LAB to win most votes moves into evens on the Ladbrokes Euro elections market

LAB to win most votes moves into evens on the Ladbrokes Euro elections market

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Latest Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnr30K Euro elections betting. LDs to get 3+ seats now 7/4 in from 7/2 pic.twitter.com/FrCaMqlBmj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2014 The yellows are getting betting support on 3+ seats My view of yesterday’s news about the breakaway anti-EU party at the Euro elections remains. Unless the official UKIP legal challenge succeeds I believe it will impact on its performance on May 22nd. The question is how much? When I first saw the South West England ballot…

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The “Literal Democrats” 2014 style: This breakaway anti-EU party could hurt UKIP big time

The “Literal Democrats” 2014 style: This breakaway anti-EU party could hurt UKIP big time

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It is top of the ballot in all 9 English regions Back at the 1994 European Elections the Lib Dems thought that had lost in the South West region because a party calling itself “The Literal Democrats” syphoned off support that the party believe should have gone to them. This led to a celebrated court case which the Yellows lost. I wonder what today’s purples will make of this – the “An Independence from Europe party” that’s appeared on the…

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