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Month: March 2014

Fixed Odds Betting Terminals vs Internet Betting: Which is worse?

Fixed Odds Betting Terminals vs Internet Betting: Which is worse?

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A look at the big betting policy debate Internet betting has often been under crossfire for causing problem gambling and addiction, but in recent years a new form of gambling has been gaining traction (and notoriety) in the UK. Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (or FOBTs), can be found in almost every betting shop, often alongside traditional slots machines. These new gaming devices are favoured both by shop owners and gamblers alike because they offer a wider variety of betting games…

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It is now a month since the last Euro poll for an election that’s less than 11 weeks off

It is now a month since the last Euro poll for an election that’s less than 11 weeks off

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Less than 11 weeks to the Euro Elections & the polling famine continues http://t.co/1zRdXoPOYi pic.twitter.com/s9gVdqwKxS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2014 Why are these not being commissioned? Above is the latest European Elections polling table from Anthony Wells’s UK Polling report showing just three surveys this year the last one being the ICM for the Guardian a month ago. Compare that with the number of polls that we get for the next time UK general election which takes place in…

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PaddyPower make LAB 4-5 odds-on favourite to win target number 91 Calder Valley

PaddyPower make LAB 4-5 odds-on favourite to win target number 91 Calder Valley

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The bookies make LAB 4/5 odds on favourite to win Calder Valley – No 91 on http://t.co/ee2w0R3jCF target list pic.twitter.com/pao4AI8sOP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2014 Backing the Tories at evens could be a good bet As I’ve written before my betting strategy for GE2015 is to stick with national outcome punts on Labour but go with single constituencies on the Tories. I’m also betting on UKIP and the LDs whenever I spot value. Thus I’m on the purples…

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Ukraine: how far will Putin go?

Ukraine: how far will Putin go?

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Putin – Ukraine pic.twitter.com/WY52tRuycw — PolPics (@PolPics) March 7, 2014 The ripple effects of the Syria vote continue to be felt There are two sorts of country in the world: superpowers and everyone else.  Superpowers can – and often do – act as they see fit, constrained only by domestic factors or the opposition of other superpowers.  The rest exist only to the extent that the superpowers allow, a fact that this week’s events have brought into stark focus. The…

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Why Labour’s loss of Ramsbottom to CON should bring some cheer to the blue team

Why Labour’s loss of Ramsbottom to CON should bring some cheer to the blue team

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Bury N, where LAB lost council seat to CON last night, is in LAB GE2015 target #41 http://t.co/ee2w0R3jCF pic.twitter.com/GDGLbL1xFT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 CON GAIN from LAB Ramsbottom on Bury CON 1398 LAB 1033 UKIP 351 GRN 157 LD 38 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 It is well over a year since PB started its regular Thursday night coverage of local council by-election. Harry Hayfield has done a great job of keeping us all informed. For me the significant results are…

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Local By-Election Results : March 6th 2014

Local By-Election Results : March 6th 2014

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Wye on Ashford (Conservative Defence) Result: Ashford Independent 323 (43% +11%), Conservative 240 (32% -7%), UKIP 97 (13% +3%), Green 55 (7%), Labour 22 (3% -8%), Liberal Democrat 13 (2% -7%) Ashford Independent GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 83 (11%) on a swing of 9% from Conservative to Ashford Independent Ramsbottom on Bury (Labour Defence) Result: Conservative 1,398 (47% unchanged on 2011), Labour 1,033 (35% -12% on 2011), UKIP 351 (12%), Green 157 (5%), Liberal Democrat 38 (1%…

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The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements

The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements

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Exactly 14 months to go & LAB leads jumps to 9..BUT.. LAB lead in YouGov Sun poll jumps 6 to 9% CON 31% LAB 40% LD 9% UKIP 13% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 We’ve got to remember that polls can be subject to a lot of sample variation with, quite often, particular demograpihic segments having to be sharply scaled up or down. If the former then the margin of error for that section increases. This is one of the reasons why…

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Local By-Election Preview: March 6th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: March 6th 2014

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Wye on Ashford (Conservative Defence) Last election to council (2011): Conservatives 30, Independents 6, Labour 5, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 17) Last election in ward (2011): Conservative 392 (39%), Ashford Independent 318 (32%), Labour 112 (11%), United Kingdom Independence Party 97 (10%), Liberal Democrats 89 (9%). Conservative GAIN from Ashford Independent with a majority of 74 (7%) Candidates duly nominated: Ken Blanshard (Lib Dem), Ian Cooling (Con), Elaine Evans (UKIP), Dylan Jones (Lab), Geoff Meaden (Green), Noel Ovenden…

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