Browsed by
Month: March 2014

The Maggie Thatcher 1979 experience: Why leader and “best PM” ratings are not necessarily the best guide to how people will vote

The Maggie Thatcher 1979 experience: Why leader and “best PM” ratings are not necessarily the best guide to how people will vote

Comments 0 Comment

CON GE2015 hopes are too reliant on Miliband’s poor ratings The Times is leading on polling about Ed Miliband’s PM ratings which are not good for Labour. There is no doubt that on almost every measure when put up against Cameron he does worse – sometimes by quite a margin. But you have to put these sorts of numbers into context. The PM ratings trend chart above is from the last general election that the Tories were returned to power…

Read More Read More

Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

Comments 0 Comment

It’ll be interesting to follow the changing prices This afternoon Ladbrokes put up betting markets in every one of the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending at GE2015. In 35 of them, all but one of them defences against the Tories, the Ladbrokes opening prices make the LDs favourite and in a further three Clegg’s party is join favourite. From a quick look down the list the MPs most likely to be still there on May 8th…

Read More Read More

If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

Comments 0 Comment

How the budget moves fit with the overall trend Quite a few PBers, I know, have been betting on the PaddyPower market on when there will be a crossover in the five times a week YouGov polls for News International. Given what’s happened since the budget then their hopes might be riding high but time is running out. For there to be a CON lead only four more surveys remain. Is that going to happen? Clearly the daily ratings can…

Read More Read More

LAB lead down but Tories trail by 5 percent in first phone poll since the budget

LAB lead down but Tories trail by 5 percent in first phone poll since the budget

Comments 0 Comment

At last for LAB a poll with a lead bigger than 1 After three online pollsters had reported LAB leads down to just one percent there’ll perhaps be some relief at Miliband HQ that tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the margin down to 5% But the trend is the same. In February the gap was 8%. Asked which of the two biggest parties was most likely to keep the economy growing, 47% say CON and 36% LAB….

Read More Read More

The political role of the purples: As a stalking horse

The political role of the purples: As a stalking horse

Comments 0 Comment

Corporeal on UKIP It’s reasonably common, in these cynical times that we live in, to hear someone dismissively remark that politicians are mainly interested in power. It’s a comment that is both often true and also the basic point of politicians. Politics itself is essentially the exercise of power in society in all its various shapes and forms and the proper use of that power is what politicians are fundamentally contesting. It is less a question of how the world…

Read More Read More

Even with poll leads there are still two massive hurdles for the Tories: LAB’s inherent electoral advantage and LD stickiness

Even with poll leads there are still two massive hurdles for the Tories: LAB’s inherent electoral advantage and LD stickiness

Comments 0 Comment

Far more CON votes are wasted where it doesn’t matter The “boundaries” has become a misleading shorthand to describe the challenge the Tories face with the way the general election electoral system operates under first past the post. The above three part interactive chart presents different elements where LAB has an inbuilt advantage. Firstly, from the GE2010 outcome we see that a much higher proportion of the blue vote gets wasted in seats won by 3rd parties Secondly we see…

Read More Read More

The LDs would be fools to choose Cable over Alexander as shadow chancellor at GE2015

The LDs would be fools to choose Cable over Alexander as shadow chancellor at GE2015

Comments 0 Comment

There’s a little debate going on within the LDs over whether Vince Cable or Danny Alexander should by the party’s “shadow chancellor” at GE 2015. Both are cabinet ministers – Alexander is chief secretary to Treasury while Cable is the business secretary. My old Oxford colleague and leading Lib Dem blogger, Stephen Tall, is arguing the case for Cable while others in the party say it should be Alexander. The latter are right for four main reasons:- First the yellows…

Read More Read More