Everything is dependent on turnout

YouGov asked a likelihood to vote question which moved UKIP into second place and saw LAB up 2.

This looks set to be low turnout election which presents a huge challenge for the pollsters. They might accurately reflect the pattern of support as is being told to them but everything depends on whether people actually do take the trouble to exercise their vote.

YouGov found that 38% said they were certain to vote which was exactly the same as in the ComRes poll at the weekend which put UKIP ahead.

YouGov ask the certainty to vote question after people have given their party choice which many believe inflates the figure. In my view best practice is to follow ICM and Populus and put this first.

ICM, in its EP 2014 last month, did it this way and found just 28% saying they were certain to vote and had UKIP in third.

This one is getting very hard to call.

CORRECTION Since publishing this article ComRes have advised me that it does ask the turnout question BEFORE the voting intention question. My apologies.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

Follow @MSmithsonPB