For the first time UKIP takes the lead in a poll for the May Euro elections
This should shake up the betting markets
Note that ComRes applied a different certainty to vote filter compared with normal Westminster polling. Only those certain to vote are included and my guess is that this is a major factor that has put UKIP at the top.
As I write I haven’t seen the detail but my guess is that demographic groups likely to support UKIP are those who are most likely to turnout.
Note. The change figures on the above chart now relate to the ComRes EP Jan 2013 poll.
On Westminster voting LAB lead narrows with ComRes but stays same with Opinium
Nick Clegg gets his best approval ratings with Opinium for more than 2 years – a net minus 39
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2014
Cameron Opinium approval ratings net minus 10%, EdM minus 14
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2014