Immigration Minister Mark Harper resigns after it emerged his cleaner did not have permission to work in the UK. pic.twitter.com/CD3uOfzKRe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2014 Another boost for UKIP? Further details from the Spectator blog here.
The classic Con/Lab voter has gone the way of the Con/Lab system Once upon a time, most people voted at general elections and nearly everyone that did voted Conservative or Labour. And thus the key swing vote was born: those persuadable voters in marginal constituencies. Win them and you win the election. Then it became far more complicated. The rise of the Liberals, the Scots and Welsh Nationalists and more recently a plethora of other parties – combined with a…
Betws yn Rhos on Conwy (Non Party Independent defence) Result: Independent (Lloyd) 347 (46%), Plaid Cymru 197 (26% -2%), Independent (Evans) 127 (17%), Conservative 83 (11%) Independent WIN with a majority of 150 (20%) (The total Independent vote was 474 (63%) down 9% on 2012, therefore there was a swing of 3.5% from Ind to Plaid) Arbourthorne on Sheffield (Lab Defence, last elected in 2012) Result: Lab 1,398 (52% -15% on 2012), UKIP 482 (18% +2% on 2012), Con 213…
New Populus poll with new methodology that gives big boost to UKIP Lab 36 Cons 33 LD 9 UKIP 15; — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 @PopulusPolls say their new methodology will boost UKIP and see declines for LAB & LDs. Tories should stay the same. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 @PopulusPolls has been sharply criticised about its former party ID weighting model. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 The new weightings – see how they shift…
How the parties are campaigning from the @LordAshcroft Wythenshawe poll pic.twitter.com/oFC8TtPY3W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 Getting data is absolutely essential Once again Lord Ashcroft has done what the mainstream media seems to have all but abandoned – commissioned an expensive phone poll on an upcoming political event and come up with data that adds to our understanding of the current political scene. No one is particularly surprised by the voting numbers in his Wythenshawe poll – LAB…
Counting the votes pic.twitter.com/jyd5QR07yQ — PolPics (@PolPics) January 25, 2014 Betws yn Rhos on Conwy (Non Party Independent Defence) Result of last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 11) Result of ward at last election (2012): Non Party Independent 340 (43%), Plaid Cymru 219 (28%), Independent 167 (21%), Independent 40 (5%), Independent 18 (2%) * Total Independent vote: 565 (72%) Candidates duly nominated: Caroline Evans (Independent),…
Ipsos-MORI February 2014 pic.twitter.com/ubIv7VrwO7 — PolPics (@PolPics) February 6, 2014 Ipsos-MORI chart showing sharp rise in economic optimism pic.twitter.com/yoYYPtNYEf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2014 Table showing latest Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings for the 4 leaders pic.twitter.com/BMf8Hrr9NL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2014