The Floods: Is this going to start impacting on Voting Intentions?
This morning's headline on the bbc website pic.twitter.com/CM7dPT6r0u
— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) February 16, 2014
We’ve seen some polling over the weekend on David Cameron and the Government’s handling/response to the floods.
Opinium for the Observer found
Opinium/Observer on the flooding pic.twitter.com/GgQB5uGRaB
— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) February 16, 2014
ComRes found
ComRes on the floods
I feel the Govt is beginning to get a grip on the flooding situation in Britain
23% Agreed 59% Disagreed
— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) February 16, 2014
YouGov for The Sunday Times found,Â
How has Cameron has responded to the recent flooding?
Total well 29 (+4), Total Badly 60 (-2), Net -31 (+6)
(changes since last week)
— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) February 16, 2014
Overall, Â this does not make for pleasant reading for David Cameron or the Government, although the figures have improved with YouGov since last week for David Cameron, they still remain dire.
Whilst there has been no discernible change in voting intention so far, but the longer the floods carry on, and the polling on the handling of the floods remains like this, it could have an impact on voting intentions, as this becomes a wider competence issue for the government, which as has been noted in the past.
Key driver analysis of British Election Study data tells us that things like party identification, perceptions of the leaders and perceived competence are the things that drive votes… not policies on individual issues.
The other impact of the floods could be this, on Wednesday, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney said
“What tends to happen with natural disasters is that you get a hit to GDP (gross domestic product) as it’s going on and then you get a recovery; you get that back later on with the repair, so when you look over the stance for the horizon that the Bank would operate, one looks through it”
Over the last year to eighteen months, the general trend has been economic optimism has been rising, and Labour’s lead has been falling. Whilst correlation doesn’t equal causation, a hit to GDP could lead to economic optimism falling and perhaps Labour’s lead widening, which could mean a double hit to the Government.
Time will tell if there will be an impact on voting intention.
YouGov / Sunday Times had VI is Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%
— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) February 16, 2014