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Month: January 2014

Local By-Election Preview : January 9th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : January 9th 2014

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Haverhill East on St. Edmundsbury (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Con 38, Ind 4, Lab 3 (Conservative overall majority of 31 Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 834, 664, 662 (55%) Labour 648, 636 (33%) Liberal Democrats 260, 188 (12%) Candidates duly nominated: Tony Brown (UKIP), Pat Hanlon (Lab), David Roach (Con), Ken Rolph (Lib Dem) This will be the fourth by-election to St. Edmundsbury since the 2011 local elections and…

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Memory of the 2011 SNP surge – what’s keeping the YES hopes alive and worrying NO

Memory of the 2011 SNP surge – what’s keeping the YES hopes alive and worrying NO

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I’ve put this chart up before because it is so important in understanding the dynamics of the IndyRef campaign. For whenever YES is presented with a new poll they respond with what happened three years ago. And who can blame them? SLAB had built up big leads in just about all the Holyrood polls and the speculation was that the SNP would lose power that May and the red team would be back in with the possibility of an overall…

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If UKIP gets its act together in Wythenshawe and Sale East it can give Labour a run for its money

If UKIP gets its act together in Wythenshawe and Sale East it can give Labour a run for its money

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The result from Wythenshawe & Sale E at GE2010 Looks like a LAB hold on reduced turnout but could UKUP do something? pic.twitter.com/Sfkud1U3my — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2014 The purples can’t go on getting good 2nd places – they need MPs The sad and untimely death at the age of 60 of the popular former minister, Paul Goggins, creates what could be a tricky by-election defence for Labour and an opportunity for UKIP. For in spite of all the…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To you lurkers, why not delurk? Once you delurk, you won’t be saying Oh My God, what have I done, you’ll be saying Lurking, Every Day I Love You Less and Less. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Nick Clegg tweets ‘Ed Balls’ to signal…

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People in receipt of state pensions have paid for it over the years – they are not on benefits

People in receipt of state pensions have paid for it over the years – they are not on benefits

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Chart from @ChrisGiles on how the welfare budget split State pension, surely, should not be regarded as a benefit pic.twitter.com/ex9R9d1gZz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2014 @GuidoFawkes @MSmithsonPB Er, its Osborne who talks about welfare which brigades the lot together. — John McTernan (@johnmcternan) January 8, 2014 It’s time the terminology was changed Eighteen months ago I started to receive my state pension after I’d deferred it for a year. Before this was granted there were checks that I had…

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The PB 2014 Prediction Competition

The PB 2014 Prediction Competition

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It’s time to make your predictions for 2014… It’s going to be a busy year ahead – the Euros, Scotland, and the world’s four biggest democracies all voting. Who’ll win the UK Euro-Elections, and will Scotland be on the road to independence by the end of the year? Will the coalition still be in place at Christmas? It’s time to dust off your crystal ball and make your competition predictions for 2014. As before the competition is being hosted by…

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Local By-Election Preview : January 7th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : January 7th 2014

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Swinton South on Salford (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Lab 52, Con 8 (Labour overall majority of 44) Result of ward in last electoral cycle: 2010: Lab 1,671, Lib Dem 1,358, Con 1,055, Ind 837 2011: Lab 1,356, Con 553, Green 481, Lib Dem 277, UKIP 194 2012: Lab 1,072, Green 394, Con 376, BNP 172, Lib Dem 141, Eng Dems 112, Community Action 86 Candidates duly nominated: Neil Blower (Lab), Anne Broomhead (Con), Steve Cullen…

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The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three quarters of the public sector workers who voted for them in 2010

The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three quarters of the public sector workers who voted for them in 2010

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One of the great things about having a large overall sample, as Lord Ashcroft generally does, is that the sub-samples are based on numbers that give more confidence in the findings. This is why Lord Ashcroft polls in this way. Thus in the latest poll the total of public sector workers was 1.167 which is greater than the samples for many of the national surveys that we see. This has been a big area of change as the chart above…

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