Wythenshawe looks as though it will take place in mid-February
Betting on who’ll win outright
See where the money has been going in the Wythenshawe betting. Best LAB price now 1/9 pic.twitter.com/7GU7JKsCM9
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2014
Betting on the runner-up
Ukip now 2/5 favourite to come 2nd in Wythenshawe. See where money has been going pic.twitter.com/TSmOjIj8tK
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2014
With the Wythenshawe by-election expected to take place in mid-February all the attention is now on who’ll get selected for Labour and UKIP.
Clearly, as saw in Eastleigh, the candidate can make a massive difference. That election was UKIP’s best performance ever in a Westminster seat and a lot of that was down to the quality of their candidate, Diane James. I can’t see her or Nigel Farage being tempted by the upcoming challenge.
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It is hard to see UKIP winning but they need a good performance (25-30% vote share) just to keep up the momentum.
A problem for Farage is that the North West is not one of UKIP’s strongest regions. Their big successes have been in the east. Even in the Alan Bown-funded single constituency polling before Christmas the party was doing comparatively badly in Crewe & Nantwich which is barely 25 miles away.
Last Thursday Labour won a council seat from the Tories in a ward that is adjacent to this parliamentary seat. UKIP did poorly.