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Month: December 2013

The 2011 Holyrood election: When Scottish Labour moved from a 14pc YouGov lead to being 18pc behind in just 11 weeks

The 2011 Holyrood election: When Scottish Labour moved from a 14pc YouGov lead to being 18pc behind in just 11 weeks

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How polling leads can just evaporate The chart shows the sequence of YouGov Holyrood regional vote shares for LAB and SNP in the eleven weeks running up to the May 2011 elections. The movement is startling and even YouGov’s eve of poll survey, with an SNP lead of just 7% was a long way out. The actual SNP lead was 18%. This is a timely reminder for both GE2015 polling and, of course, the Scottish IndyRef, just nine months away….

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Little change in the first two of the Sunday newspaper polls to report

Little change in the first two of the Sunday newspaper polls to report

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Unlike all the other pollsters that have reported this week tonight’s online surveys from Opinium for the Observer and ComRes for the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror have the LAB lead steady or up a notch. This compares with the latest ICM, Ipsos-MORI, Populus online and YouGov surveys which have had Labour down a notch though all changes within the margin or error. Essentially we are where we were with LAB sort of holding steady but not with as comfortable a…

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Tomorrow’s 2013 SPOTY election: David Herdson says that the value bet could be that Murray doesn’t win

Tomorrow’s 2013 SPOTY election: David Herdson says that the value bet could be that Murray doesn’t win

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pic.twitter.com/wRDO5Y8pyA — PolPics (@PolPics) December 14, 2013 The BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year (SPOTY) is, like X Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, Big Brother or Eurovision, very much an election.  As with all elections, working out the likely chances comes down to correctly understanding four things: the candidates, the campaigns, the voters, and the electoral system. Since Andy Murray won Wimbledon in the Summer, he’s been extremely long odds on to win, to the extent that if you believe the…

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Local By-Election Results : December 12th 2013

Local By-Election Results : December 12th 2013

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Topcliffe on Hambleton (Con Defence) Candidates duly nominated: Garry Key (Con) Result: Conservative HOLD elected unopposed Hornby Castle on Richmondshire (Con Defence) Result: Conservative 127 (46%), Independent 98 (36%), United Kingdom Independence Party 50 (18%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 29 (10%) Iver Village and Richings Park (Lib Dem Defence) Result: Conservative 422 (47%), United Kingdom Independence Party 377 (42%), Liberal Democrats 101 (11%) Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrats with a majority of 45 (5%) Bedworth West on Warwickshire…

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Latest survey from Britain most long-established pollster set to increase concerns in the red team

Latest survey from Britain most long-established pollster set to increase concerns in the red team

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Chart from Ipsos-MORI showing contrast between the all naming a party and those 100% certain to vote pic.twitter.com/ksFSvlSpv2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2013 EdM the only leader with declining satisfaction ratings Chart showing latest Ipsos-MORI leader ratings which are widely regarded as the gold standard pic.twitter.com/5JoSZjsGF2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2013 Once again EdM struggling to maintain confide of LAB voters See Ipsos-MORI chart pic.twitter.com/yvw4Yu1wKi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2013 Economic optimism still strong…

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Survation poll of NON-VOTERS shows that LAB is losing most from untapped support

Survation poll of NON-VOTERS shows that LAB is losing most from untapped support

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The coalition parties are losing the least Survation have got a poll out for Lodesetone showing the party choices of non-voters. The figures are in the chart above and as can be seen nearly a third of the non-voters said Labour. The main point of the poll is to show what would happen if turnout levels could be increased. So Labour seem to be the party that’s losing most from this untapped source of support with the Lib Dems losing…

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Local By-Election Preview: December 12th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: December 12th 2013

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Topcliffe on Hambleton (Con Defence) Result of last election (2011): Con 39, Ind 3, Lib Dem 2 (Conservative overall majority of 34) Result of last election in ward (2011): Con 550 (75%), Lib Dem 185 (25%) Candidates duly nominated: Garry Key (Con) Result: Conservative HOLD elected unopposed Hambleton is quite accustomed to the concept of elected unopposed being a rural area in the North of Yorkshire, however as their colleagues in Richmondshire may find being elected unopposed can have it’s…

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