New #IndyRef poll from Hexham-based Panelbase for S Times poll puts Yes 38% No 47%.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2013

I’m still not convinced that NO is a certainty

A few days ago I posted that I wasn’t following the gamblers who have been piling onto NO in the Scots IndyRef because I still think there’s a chance that YES might happen.

I’m not alone. During the week Alistair Carmichael, the tough talking LD MP who has recently taken over as Scottish Sec, warned:-

“: “I am convinced that this is a fight that can still be lost… winning with a 49-51 split actually resolves nothing.

“Do not assume we will get the 51% – we could end up with the 49%.”

Today we learned that the Scottish government has named the day, March 24 2016, when the country would leave te UK if the vote was YES.

Ladbrokes now make NO a 1/8 shot. If it was the other way round and YES was 8/1 I’d bet.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004

Follow @MSmithsonPB