So it’s back to where we were

This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun suggests that yesterday’s 4% CON deficit might have been a blip though all changes are within the margin of error.

We also have the latest YouGov “Best PM” tracker which sees 34% saying Cameron and 23% saying EdM – both down one point. 95% of CON voters named Dave while 63% of LAB ones named Ed – findings that will continue to give hope to the blue team.

Compared with previous times we have far more polling than ever before. It used to be that the publication of a poll was a major event. Not so today.

The YouGov daily poll came in three months before GE2010. Now, in addition, we have the twice weekly Populus online poll, the fortnightly Opinium/Observer poll, two ComRes surveys a month as well as regular surveys by TNS-BMR, Survation and the two firms that have been doing this the longest, Ipsos-MORI and ICM.

This does mean that the impact of a single poll can be diluted.

The reason, of course, is the rapid expansion of cheap online polling and, at the same time, a decline in the much more expensive phone polling.

What we don’t have in the UK are automated phone polls where respondents enter their replies on their phone key-pad.

Mike Smithson

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