The LDs might have left Glasgow in upbeat mood but their GE2015 prospects are dependent on UKIP continuing to prosper
The big question mark over the Ashcroft polling
Most delegates at this week’s Liberal Democrat conference left Glasgow in a confident mood helped by the polling of marginal constituencies funded by ex-Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft and published on Sunday.
This gave the party the glimmer of hope. For in spite of their ongoing poor national polling and their leader’s dreadful ratings it appeared that they weren’t going to be annihilated on May 7th 2015 as many have predicted.
- What was barely mentioned was the reason why their chances in Tory battlegrounds have started to look better – the dramatic rise of UKIP which is hurting the blue team the most.
Just look at the chart above. In these key targets the LDs are down 10 points on their GE2010 performance. This includes a 2% drop since Ashcroft carried out a similar poll in 2011.
The reason the LDs appear to be competitive now is that UKIP has risen sharply eating into the CON vote. If the blues find a way of winning back these lost voters then the yellows will be in trouble.
Mike Smithson
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