The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is out.

YouGov Sunday Times Poll, Labour gets it first double digit lead since 12/7 Con 31 Lab 41 Lib Dem 9 UKIP 13

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 1, 2013

YouGov changes compared with last poll take pre-Syrian vote Con -2 Lab +4 Lib Dems -1 UKIP +1

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 1, 2013

 

As ever, this is one poll, we need to see more polling to see if this is an outlier or the start of a new trend, it was only a month a go, we saw a Populus poll in the aftermath of the vans campaign, that saw the Tories drop 5 and saw UKIP up by 4, that turned out to be an outlier.

Mike noted at the time, as Nate Silver has observed the test of an honest pollster is whether they get the occasional outlier which should occur, on average, with one in every 20 surveys.

Other poll findings

YouGov leader Well/badly ratings net changes on last week Cameron minus 1 Milliband plus 9 Clegg plus 6 Cameron's overall lead is 20

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 1, 2013

Have the leaders shown strong leadership over Syria? Cam Has 39, Hasn't 41, Net – 2 EdM Has 28, Hasn't 46, Net -18 Clegg net -43

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 1, 2013

Judging by those findings, David Cameron hasn’t experienced any personal damage from the fall out of his Syria policy, which fits the polling from early on in the week, which showed 46% of voters believe that when it comes to Syria Cameron is genuinely concerned to do what is right & in Britain’s interests, whereas 33% disagreed.

For Ed Miliband, his leader ratings have improved from last weeks low, but the finding of his leadership over Syria should raise concerns for Labour and himself, it could be taken as evidence that the Tory campaign to the accuse Labour leader of “buggering around” and “playing politics” over Syria is having an effect.

Peter Kellner has written a piece on what the public think about Syria from this poll.

 

TSE