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Month: August 2013

The fixed term parliament has taken a lot of interest out of the betting

The fixed term parliament has taken a lot of interest out of the betting

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Latest overall majority Betfair betting based on last trades. Price on CON maj now easing back pic.twitter.com/A8QezAwg4F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2013 No overall majority remains the favourite Compared with the run up to previous general elections betting on GE2015 has been relatively light for one big reason – we know when the election will be taking place and punters are, rightly, less keen to lock their stakes up for more than eighteen months in advance. Just compare…

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Two poll findings from April 1997 on the electoral impact of leading on the economy

Two poll findings from April 1997 on the electoral impact of leading on the economy

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Is it really “the economy, stupid”? On Apr 8th 1997, 3 wks before Blair landslide, MORI had CON leading LAB by 45% to 23% on best "managing the economy" pic.twitter.com/KqTwKtWbae — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2013 Is having a lead on the economy a vote winner? See this from final ICM poll of GE1997 just before Blair's landslide pic.twitter.com/u3wSNZ8m79 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2013

Growing a beard: How male supporters of the main parties divide

Growing a beard: How male supporters of the main parties divide

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After a week when Paxman's appearance was top political story 13 questions in S Times YouGov are about beards pic.twitter.com/XIuuYOl50B — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2013 The choice of questions for the weekly Sunday Times YouGov poll is a good indication of what’s been going on in the previous week and today a large part of the poll is devoted to beards – sparked off by Jeremy Paxman. This is mid-August, after all, and the height of the silly…

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Tories remain on 28pc with ComRes online while LAB extends lead

Tories remain on 28pc with ComRes online while LAB extends lead

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Another poll that doesn’t fit the media narrative EdM has his worst ever good LAB leader ratings from ComRes but his net only 1% down on Cameron pic.twitter.com/tWIwcvnzoz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2013 Dave is on a net minus 27% in ComRes good PM ratings – equalling his worst ever and only 1% better than EdM pic.twitter.com/DGsKVDFZiZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

David Herdson asks: Frack on or Frack off?

David Herdson asks: Frack on or Frack off?

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Anti-fracking protesters in Sussex pic.twitter.com/gywj7k002L — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2013 Is Cuadrilla’s climbdown in Sussex a victory for Luddite intimidation? August is an excellent time to stage a media-friendly protest.  With little other regular news about, domestically at least, journalists will be more than happy to report protesters marching, banner-waving and – in the more militant – causing a nuisance, breaching the peace and being arrested.  That the weather’s usually a bit more pleasant than in February doesn’t…

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It is 6-1 for CON to re-take Corby: By far the best bet for those who think the blues are in with a shout

It is 6-1 for CON to re-take Corby: By far the best bet for those who think the blues are in with a shout

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PaddyPower is offering 6/1 on the Tories retaking Corby – Louise Mensch’s old seat which was won by Labour in last November’s by-election. Given that the best you can now get on a CON majority is 3/1 then the Corby price is remarkably generous if you think that the Tories are in with a chance of, at the very minimum, of stopping Labour from getting most seats. Based on the GE2010 outcome Corby was LAB target number 27 and it…

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Henry G Manson says Ed needs to add grit and a touch of glamour in his reshuffle

Henry G Manson says Ed needs to add grit and a touch of glamour in his reshuffle

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Ten to follow for possible promotion Ed Miliband’s September reshuffle will be a significant affair and his last chance to form his team in the run up to the election. There is creeping frustration in the leaders’ office with the lack of new ideas among some shadow ministers and there’s a strong sense that an injection of new blood is needed. Here are my top ten to follow in the run up to the reshuflled – I expect them to…

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Three CON defences and a LAB one in tonight’s local by-elections

Three CON defences and a LAB one in tonight’s local by-elections

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Live scene from the count for the Manor House by-election waiting for the first ballot boxes #Hartlepool pic.twitter.com/d7EMqfuJIm — Richard Mennear (@RMennearHMail) August 15, 2013 Walsall MBC, Aldridge Central and South: CON defence (death) Last fought 2012 CON 1602: LAB 735: UKIP 517: LD 358 West Berkshire DC, Hungerford: CON defence (death) Last fought 2011 CON 1315/1178: LD 840/711 Torridge DC, Shebbear and Langtree:CON defence (resignation) Last fought 2011 CON 468:LD 273 Hartlepool UA, Manor House: LAB seat (Resignation) Last…

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