Askern Spa on Doncaster (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Lab 50, Con 9, Lib Dem 3, Ind 1 (Labour overall majority of 37)

Ward results in last electoral cycle

2010: Con 1,502 (27%), Lab 2,756 (49%), Eng Dems 1,415 (25%)
2011: Con 831 (21%), Lab 2,205 (55%), Ind 416 (10%), Eng Dems 574 (14%)
2012: Con 954 (30%), Lab 2,269 (70%)

At the start of modern electoral history, Doncaster was a fascinating place. A true Con / Lab battleground (worthy of the Worcesters, Harlows and Basildons of today). From 1950 to 1979, Doncaster was keenly fought over and never had a majority of more than 8,000 at any one time.

That was until the 1983 boundary changes when Doncaster was replaced by Doncaster Central, Doncaster North and the Don Valley and then politics in Doncaster got just a little on the boring side. Huge Labour majorities (topping 50% in Doncaster North at the 1997 election) and even though the majorities have shrunk since then with such Labour lights as Caroline Flint (Don Valley), Rosie Winterton (Doncaster Central) and a certain Ed Milliband (Doncaster North) are likely to get re-elected with massive majorities again.

So Doncaster is a boring town, electorally speaking. Well, not quite. Doncaster suddenly erupted into the news in 2009 when in the third election for an elected mayor in Doncaster it threw a massive spanner into the works by electing an English Democrat. Yes, that party who at the last general election polled a grand total of 64,826 votes (half that of Plaid Cymru, in very nearly three times as many constituencies) had hit the electoral jackpot by winning an election.

Naturally the media leapt on this reporting it as “a sign that Britain was fed up with what the parties were offering” however it wasn’t long before the media cottoned on the fact that this new Mayor has some very interesting policies including “The one thing to be said about the Taliban is that they do have an ordered society of some sort and that they don’t have hundreds of cases of children under threat of abuse from violent parents, as we have in Doncaster” a few months after his election.

He left the English Democrats in February of this year and sought to retain his post as an Independent against an official English Democrat candidate. In the first round of voting held in May at the same time as the county elections, he polled 590 fewer votes than Labour but qualified for the run off where he only managed to cut the gap by 49 votes meaning that Labour gained the mayoralty and have re-established their complete control of Doncaster at all levels.

Bracebridge on Lincoln (Con Defence)

Last Local Election (2012): Lab 24, Con 8, Ind 1 (Labour overall majority of 15)

Ward results in last electoral cycle

2010: Con 1,632 (42%), Lab 1,143 (29%), Lib Dem 775 (20%), BNP 206 (5%), UKIP 148 (4%)
2011: Con 1,134 (49%), Lab 932 (41%), UKIP 234 (10%)
2012: Con 712 (41%), Lab 719 (41%), Lib Dem 82 (5%), BNP 49 (3%), UKIP 183 (11%)

Lincoln is another example of a battleground and tracks what has happened to all the parties since the Labour landslide of 1997. In the first elections post that landslide, Labour enjoyed success after success and made a very healthy 21 seat majority by the 2003 local elections. However from there on, things started to go downhill and in 2007, they lost control to the Conservatives, however any hopes the Conservatives had of establishing control were short lived as in 2010 the Conservatives lost overall control and Labour gained overall control the following year before really piling on the pressure in 2012 (and inflicting seven net losses onto the Conservatives) and with this ward voting Labour by seven in 2012, it would be a confident fellow to say “Conservative HOLD” but with Ed Milliband’s popularity at an all time low, will Labour be able to repeat last year’s success or (despite their problems) will Lincolnshire’s opposition on the county council (UKIP) strike at the heart of the county?

Newby on Scarborough (Ind Defence) / Ramshill on Scarborough (Con Defence)
Last Local Election (2011): Con 25, Ind 14, Lab 6, Lib Dem 3, Green 2 (No Overall Control, Con and Opposition tied)

Newby Ward Result (Emboldened denotes elected)

Name of Party	First Candidate	Second Candidate	Third Candidate
Conservative	720	696	638
Labour	516
Liberal Democrats	288
Independents	842	841	676
Green Party	328

Ramshill Ward Result (Emboldened denotes elected)

Name of Party	First Candidate	Second Candidate
Conservative	350	323
Labour	301
Liberal Democrats	260
Independents	368
Green Party	232

“Are you going to Scarborough Faire?” sang Simon and Garfunkel, putting their twist on the song from the middle ages and after listing a seemingly random selection of herbs, they plead “Remember me to the the one who lives there, for she was once a true love of mine!”.

A sentiment that could easily apply to all the parties on Scarborough council (as they all seem to have had a go at being in charge). Back in 2003 it was the Conservative who had an overall majority (albeit three) but a majority is a majority, but despite the national swing to the Conservatives in the 2007 local elections, in Scarborough things did not go according to plan.

The Conservatives lost two seats, the Independents gained one, Labour gained two, the Liberal Democrats gained three and although the Greens stayed still, their share of the vote went up leaving the council hung but with the opposition having two more seats than the Conservatives. Naturally following the general election in 2010, the natural assumption was “Labour will have a barnstorming election”.

Well, as in 2007 the electorate of Scarborough had clearly not read the script. Con +2, Ind -1, Lab +2, Lib Dem -3, Green no change, thus leaving the council in the position it is in now. Which gives the electors of Ramshill especially, an interesting question. Do they follow the rule book and elect a Labour councillor or ignore it completely keep their Independent streak and hope that the electors of Newby (who clearly also have an Independent streak) throw a spanner in the works and declare an Independent GAIN from Con (and put the opposition back in control)?

Harry Hayfield