The Tories get to within 3 percent in tonight’s YouGov poll
LAB lead down to just 3% in latest YouGov/Sun poll Lab 38 Con 35 LD 11 UKIP 10.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013
Tonight's 3% LAB YouGov lead is the smallest since March 2012 – before Osborne's budget
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013
Are the Tories closing in on Labour in tonight's polling? No way of knowing if your methodology arbitrarily reduces UKIP support…
— Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) July 22, 2013
According to Electoral Calculus http://t.co/7zODFZdeFu tonight's YouGov figures would give LAB majority of 30 pic.twitter.com/KAQOvTv94t
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013
These figures are bound to cheer the Tories though the CON rise is not at the expense of LAB or the LDs but from UKIP – which is seeing a decline.
The seat calculation from Electoral Calculus illustrates the challenge still facing the blues. The 3% gap on votes in the poll produces a total 73 difference on seats which almost certainly understates it because Lib Dem incumbency.
Whatever the numbers are moving in the right direct for Dave & Co.
Mike Smithson
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