Aylsham on Broadland (Con Defence)
Last Local Election Result (2011): Con 34, Lib Dem 12, Lab 1 (Con majority of 21)

Ward Result (emboldened denotes elected)

Name of party	First Candidate	Second Candidate	Third Candidate
Conservative	1,336	1,253	1,010
Liberal Democrats	1,182	846	752
Labour	542	471
Greens	446

Broadland covers the area of Norfolk that is just to the north of Norwich City (and by a strange quirk of how these things are organised, are the main authority involved in the election of a member for the Norwich North constituency) and seeing as the council has been Conservative since 2003 (with majorities ranging from 5 to 23) it is no wonder that following the Conservative’s demolition of all the opposition in the 2007 local elections (Con +8, Lab -2, Lib Dem -3, Ind -3) that Norwich North went Conservative in the by-election of 2008. What was surprising though was the Conservative resilience in the first locals after the general election where they only lost one seat (compared to the Lib Dems gaining three seats at the expense of the Independents). Will that continue some two years later (or will the Liberal Democrats be able to spring a surprise on their coalition partners)?

Abingdon, Fitzharris on Vale of the White Horse (Con Defence)
Last Local Election Result (2011): Con 31, Lib Dem 19, Lab 1 (Con majority of 11)

Ward Result (emboldened denotes elected)

Name of party	First Candidate	Second Candidate
Conservative	659	645
Labour	292
Liberal Democrats	709	653

As you may have guessed from the name of this ward, this forms part of Oxford West and Abingdon constituency (a Conservative GAIN at the last election from the Lib Dems who won it at the 1997 general election) and the closeness of that result gives you an indication as to the history of the council as a whole. In the 2003 local elections, the Liberal Democrats controlled the Vale of the White Horse with 29 councillors (as opposed to 21 Conservatives and an Independent) and was one of nine Lib Dem controlled authorities in the South East of England. However in 2007, that number fell significantly to just four councils and yet in the Vale the Lib Dems cemented their control gaining five seats (four from Con and the Independent). Sadly as has been demonstrated time and time again, the 2011 local elections were a disaster. The Conservatives made 14 gains and with Labour making the other gain saw the Lib Dems lose control and lose 15 seats. Will tonight’s vote mark a turning point in a key Lib Dem target at the next election?

Silverdale and Parksite on Newcastle Under Lyme (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election Result (2012): Lab 31, Con 17, Lib Dem 11 (Lab majority of 3)

Past Ward Results in current electoral cycle

	Local Elections   2010		Local Elections   2011
Name of party	Votes Cast	% Share	Votes Cast	% Share
Labour	612	37%	471	47%
UKIP	457	28%	431	43%
Conservatives	320	20%	112	11%
Liberal Democrats	254	16%

NB: There was no election for this ward in 2012

Newcastle under Lyme (as opposed to upon Tyne) has an electoral history that shows just what a turnaround being in opposition has done for Labour. Back in 2003, Labour were on the verge of control (just two seats short) and in 2004, they gained control making those two gains before losing control again in 2006. However, 2007 was the start of the dark times for the party as they lost seven seats (three to Con and four to the Lib Dems) followed by a complete rout in 2008 racking up eight losses (five to the Conservatives, one to the Lib Dems and two to UKIP). However at the 2011 local elections, everything reversed. Labour gained ten seats compared to the 2010 locals (gaining three from Con, six from the Lib Dems and one from UKIP) ahead of making another seven gains in 2012 and taking control of the council. With the council’s control on a knife edge will Silverdale continue with Labour or will UKIP show that they are not a one hit wonder (having been wiped out from the council in 2012)?

Llansamlet on Swansea (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election Result (2012): Lab 49, Lib Dem 12, Ind 6, Con 4, Rates 1 (Lab majority of 26)

Ward Result (embolden denotes elected)

Name of party	First Candidate	Second Candidate	Third Candidate	Fourth Candidate	% Share
Labour	2,185	2,154	2,051	1,971	81%
Independents	952				9%
Conservatives	354	335	328		10%

The City of Swansea is yet another classic example of what happened to the Liberal Democrats once they entered coalition. In 1999, Swansea was a Labour bastion (Lab 47, Lib Dem 10, Ind 7, Con 4, Plaid 2, Ratespayers 1, Ind Lab 1) giving Labour a majority of 22 on a vote lead of 31%. However in the 2004 local elections, that dominance came to rather an abrupt end as Labour suffered 15 losses with the Liberal Democrats being the main gainers picking up an extra nine seats and although it left Labour with a majority (of 5) and a vote lead of 7% (on a swing from Lab to Lib Dem of 12%), it was clear that Labour was no longer flavour of the month n Swansea (proven again when in the 2005 general election when the Swansea West constituency elected a Labour MP with just a 13% majority on a swing from Lab to Lib Dem of 10%. However, despite this blow the 2008 local elections were mild in comparsion. Labour lost another two seats with the Liberal Democrats picking up another four and although the council was no in a state of No Overall Control (Lab 30, Lib Dem 23, Ind 13, Con 4, Rates 1, Plaid 1), Labour still had a lead of 2% in the votes cast. So as you can imagine the Liberal Democrats were fairly confident about their chances in Swansea West come the general election, however on the night they missed (by 504 votes). And then came the coalition and for the Liberal Democrats in Swansea, the most awful electoral night in their history. Eleven losses (including Rob Speht in Landore who had been a past parliamentary candidate, Peter May in Uplands another past parliamentary candidate) and a staggering 17% swing from Lib Dem to Lab meaning that they went from influencing the council in a coalition deal with the Independents to leaders of the opposition. So as you can imagine with that sort of Labour domination and a Liberal Democrat party still struggling to make any headway against Labour, any Lib Dem gain in Llansamlet would be a miracle.

Riverside on North Tyneside (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election Result (2012): Lab 44, Con 12, Lib Dem 4 (Lab majority of 28)

Past Ward Results in current electoral cycle

	Local Elections   2010		Local Elections   2011		Local Elections   2012
Name of party	Votes Cast	Votes Cast	Votes Cast	% Share	Votes Cast	% Share
Labour	2,220	55%	1,775	72%	1,684	85%
Liberal Democrats	1,058	26%	249	10%
Conservatives	791	19%	442	18%	306	15%

To imagine North Tyneside being anything other than Labour, might seem impossible, but between 2004 and 2011 that is precisely what happened. And the worst of it was the 2008 local elections when the Conservatives GAINED control of the council producing the first Conservative controlled council in the former Tyne and Wear county area for over 25 years. It wasn’t to last as in 2010, Labour reclaimed their largest party status and the following year gained majority control but just because you have a majority does not mean that every ward will be a Labour hold!