Browsed by
Month: June 2013

Lord Ashcroft is releasing his Boris polling in bits: Phase one on which politicians those sampled recognised

Lord Ashcroft is releasing his Boris polling in bits: Phase one on which politicians those sampled recognised

Comments 0 Comment

The 1st phase of @LordAshcroft Boris polling on recognition level of leading politicians. Sample shown pics See pic.twitter.com/HRHEwwibX8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 25, 2013 But does being recognised = electoral success? Michael Ashcroft has decided to tease us with tit-bits with the release of his hyped Boris polling. Instead of issuing it all at once he’s doing it in bits – probably with the aim of building up his Twitter following and mailing list. This morning we get the “who…

Read More Read More

New ComRes phone poll sees UKIP dropping 3 and LAB extending lead to 6

New ComRes phone poll sees UKIP dropping 3 and LAB extending lead to 6

Comments 0 Comment

The changes in the chart are with the ComRes phone poll last month. I treat ComRes phone polls as a separate series from ComRes online. A majority of people aged 65 and over believe that pensioners should not be immune from public spending cuts, according to the poll. They are more likely than any other age group to think that pensioners should not enjoy special protection from the cuts. Amid an intense political debate over whether pensioners’ benefits such as…

Read More Read More

The biggest challenge for UKIP at #GE2015 will be the wasted vote syndrome

The biggest challenge for UKIP at #GE2015 will be the wasted vote syndrome

Comments 0 Comment

Farage urgently needs MPs from defections and by-elections One of the great general election challenges for parties other than LAB and CON is to persuade people that in their constituency their vote won’t be wasted. The national battle will be portrayed as being between the big two with the threat on either side that a vote for one of the other parties will let the other one in. The Lib Dems have in the past done well in seats where…

Read More Read More

Are the voters ready to countenance the idea of PM Boris? We might know more this week

Are the voters ready to countenance the idea of PM Boris? We might know more this week

Comments 0 Comment

@LordAshcroft Do you need a cover photo for your Boris poll? pic.twitter.com/0UscaExd25 — Nick Boles (@GeneralBoles) June 23, 2013 Is the Mayor the man who polls better than he performs? In the last year there have been several polls from different pollsters using different methodologies that have sought to test the impact on voting intentions if Boris rather than Dave was CON leader. The outcomes have generally been the same that the blue team would get a boost with Boris…

Read More Read More

Dave would not have become PM if he’d held out for a minority Conservative government

Dave would not have become PM if he’d held out for a minority Conservative government

Comments 0 Comment

May 7 2010: Cameron making his offer to the LDs On Friday I took part in a conference panel with Paul Staines and the respected city analyst, David Buik. He made a statement which we’ve heard before from Conservative supporters that Cameron’s big mistake was making his offer to the Lib Dems on the day after the last general election. Buik, and others including a number of Tory MPs and commentators, have argued that the minority Tory government would not…

Read More Read More

If the Cabinet exit betting is right male ministers have less to fear in coming cabinet reshuffle than the women

If the Cabinet exit betting is right male ministers have less to fear in coming cabinet reshuffle than the women

Comments 0 Comment

Cabinet's 4 women vulnerable in coming reshuffe All in top 8 in betting for next cabinet exit Other 15 all men pic.twitter.com/wQ1NQXUtea — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 22, 2013 The main betting market is from Ladbrokes There have been reports that Cameron is to carry out a shake-up before everybody goes on holiday. The biggest oddity in the top 8 list must be Michael Gove. I just can’t see him being demoted. He’ll stay, surely, with education where he’s seen by his…

Read More Read More

A guessing game: name the royal baby?

A guessing game: name the royal baby?

Comments 0 Comment

This Marf cartoon first appeared on their wedding day Is form a guide to value? In around a month, Britain and – at least for the time being – fifteen other states around the world will have a new third-in-line to the throne.  It’s an event for which there are several betting markets, some more practical than others.  As with most markets, correctly predicting the outcome is a combination of luck together with understanding the nature of the event, past…

Read More Read More