Harry Hayfield: The United Kingdom Independence Party are not as United Kingdom as their name suggests
This article was started on the Friday after the local elections (May 10th 2013) and was prompted by a discussion on the BBC Northern Ireland edition of the Sunday Politics the previous weekend about the chances of a UKIP breakthrough in the Assembly.
UKIP (the United Kingdom Independence Party) appear to have broken through into the political mainstream following the local elections last week and yet at the same time one thing appears clear, they are not as United Kingdom as perhaps their name suggests.
Admittedly all the results last week (with the exception of Anglesey) came from England and so there might have been a slight English bias in the results, but this is actually part of a long term trend where UKIP do a lot better in England than they do in either Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland. First of all let’s look at their strongest point, the European Elections since 1999.
European Elections 1999 – 2009
|
Region |
1999 |
2004 |
2009 |
|
England |
7.91% |
17.24% |
17.62% |
|
Wales |
3.14% |
10.53% |
12.79% |
|
Scotland |
1.26% |
6.69% |
5.23% |
As you can see the UKIP vote in England is much larger than in either Wales or Scotland (and please note that I have expressed the percentage share to overcome the fact that England has more voters than Scotland and Wales) to the extent that roughly speaking for every UKIP vote in Scotland, there are one and a half in Wales and just over three in England, but this is a trend that is reflected not just in the European Elections, it also happens at Westminster as well.
General Elections 1997 – 2010
|
General Election |
England |
Wales |
Scotland |
|
1997 (Referendum  Party / UKIP) |
3.63% |
2.75% |
1.06% |
|
2001 (UKIP) |
2.22% |
1.42% |
0.88% |
|
2005 (UKIP) |
3.00% |
1.85% |
0.98% |
|
2010 (UKIP) |
3.45% |
2.43% |
1.04% |
|
By-elections since  2010 (UKIP) |
12.02% |
6.06% |
1.02% |
Which naturally poses the question, is England more anti the establishment than Wales or Scotland? Looking at the devolved Assembly votes since 1999, it would appear to be that way.
Devolved Assembly Elections 1999 – 2011
|
Parliament |
London Assembly |
Welsh Assembly |
Scottish Parliament |
|||
|
 |
Constituencies |
Regional List |
Constituencies |
Regional List |
Constituencies |
Regional List |
|
1999 – 2003 |
1.67% |
2.05% |
0.06% |
|||
|
2003 – 2007 |
10.04% |
8.36% |
4.58% |
0.62% |
||
|
2007 – 2011 |
2.99% |
1.93% |
5.69% |
3.94% |
0.40% |
|
|
2011 – 2015 |
4.34% |
4.34% |
4.60% |
0.91% |
||
|
Parliament |
Northern Ireland |
|
 |
 |
|
1999 – 2003 |
|
|
2003 – 2007 |
|
|
2007 – 2011 |
1.83% |
|
2011 – 2015 |
That is not to say however, that UKIP could win a seat in Scotland at the next Euro Elections in 2014 or that they could win a regional seat in Scotland, Wales or indeed Northern Ireland, however at the moment any victories UKIP have will be in England only.