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Month: May 2013

Your chance to win the ideal reference book for political anoraks

Your chance to win the ideal reference book for political anoraks

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This will give you hours of psephological fun! Biteback has generously agreed to give copy of the latest volume by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, called “British Electoral Facts 1832-2012” as a PB competition prize. The book is an amazing treasure trove and my copy sits almost permanently on my desk. All you have to do is guess the CON and Ukip shares in the June Guardian ICM poll. The closest forecast will win. As with all PB competitions…

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For the moment at least Woolwich makes a CON leadership challenge less likely

For the moment at least Woolwich makes a CON leadership challenge less likely

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Thursday’s Sun front page – “We killed this British soldier. It’s an eye for an eye” #tomorrowspaperstoday #Woolwich twitter.com/suttonnick/sta… — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) May 22, 2013 This is the opportunity for Cameron to rise to the occasion. Will he? — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 23, 2013 PaddyPower CON leadership challenge prices. bit.ly/I8PkIOSee twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2013

The UKIP surge continues. How are the purples going to do at GE2015?

The UKIP surge continues. How are the purples going to do at GE2015?

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Your chance to predict to vote share At GE2010 UKIP’s national vote share was 3.1%. What will it be at the next general election? 0-5% 5-8% 8-11% 11-14% 14-17% 17-20% 20-23% 23-100%      How many seats will they win? How many seats will UKIP win at the next general election? Zero 1 2-5 6-10 More than 10     

The real message from Nick Clegg this morning – the now loveless marriage has got another 23 months to go

The real message from Nick Clegg this morning – the now loveless marriage has got another 23 months to go

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If the coalition is to end prematurely then it won’t be because the LDs quit. Clegg response.goo.gl/FRdUp twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 22, 2013 Tories are being told: There’ll be no supply & confidence In a speech this morning Nick Clegg’s making it very clear that his party will not quit the coalition ahead of the general election. So the blues factions who would like to see the arrangement ending prior to 2015 have got a problem. For Clegg…

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Tories equal their lowest ever YouGov rating in the latest daily poll

Tories equal their lowest ever YouGov rating in the latest daily poll

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Ukip edge up 2 The changes are on the previous daily poll. After last night’s different pictures from the YouGov and Survation polls the latest one from the former, just published, sees the blues drop sharply and Ukip rising 2. The fall in the CON share of 4% is greater than the margin of error and this is either an outlier or an indication that we are seeing a new trend developing. The general theory is that voters punish parties…

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One by-product of the UKIP surge – smaller parties like National Health Action have been swamped

One by-product of the UKIP surge – smaller parties like National Health Action have been swamped

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UKIP’s surge has swamped parties like National Health Action. 14 mths ago Ashcroft polling had them at 18% to this twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2013 Above is from some polling carried out for Michael Ashcroft in March 2012 on the possible impact that a NHS party could have on the next election. As can be seen the party chalked up 18% in the poll taking votes from LAB and the LDs and leaving the blues ahead. Those…

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After last night’s Survation poll with Ukip just 2pc behind the Tories today’s YouGov has the gap at 17pc

After last night’s Survation poll with Ukip just 2pc behind the Tories today’s YouGov has the gap at 17pc

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So why the huge difference? The first YouGov poll to be carried out after the “loongate” story blew up has a dramatically different picture than Survation last night. UKIP remains on the 14% share recorded in the Sunday Times poll while the Tories edge up 2% to 31% with LAB falling back a point. The main differences between Survation and YouGov are that the former takes likelihood to vote into account and prompts for Ukip in its main voting question….

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