If the coalition collapsed then the LDs are NOT going to keep the Tories in power with a supply and confidence arrangement
I’ve just put a bet on at Ladbrokes on 2013 general election at 16/1. Hard to see how the CON & LDs can divorce without early election.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013
A 16/1 bet equates to a 5.8% chance of a 2013 general election. I think chances might be higher. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013
Coalition breakup = Early general election
The main story in the Times this morning is a report that preparatory work is going on in Downing Street to deal with the consequences of a break-up of the coalition.
The report seems to be based on wishful thinking that it would be the LDs who would want to close it down not the Tories. Fat chance. It is simply not going to happen that way. The yellows are in this for the duration and if there is a break-up then Cameron and his team will be the instigators.
@msmithsonpb To avoid an election when they’re polling in single digits
— Toby Young (@toadmeister) May 17, 2013
A key part of the story is that post divorce the LDs would allow the Tories to carry on with a supply and confidence arrangement. That is naive in the extreme. Clegg and his party would be getting all the negatives of keeping the blues in power without anything in return. The LDs would take gamble of an early election.
- If the Tories want to end the coalition there will be NO supply and confidence arrangement with the LDs.
The most likely outcome would be that EdM would put down a vote of confidence which all the 57 LD MPs would support.
The blues might find a way of securing DUP backing for the vote – but at a heavy price. Thereafter it is hard seeing how the Tories could support their numbers.
The LAB-LD grouping could also expect backing from George Galloway, the Green, and Plaid. Those who watched the National Theatre’s live broadcast of “This House” last night will appreciate the machinations that would be involved.
My view is that a coalition breakup instigated by the Tories would lead to an immediate general election. My 16/1 bet on a 2013 general election might just be a winner.
Mike Smithson
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