Harry Hayfield’s guide to the action

Coker on Somerset (Deferred Election)
Last Council Election (2013): Con 28, Lib Dem 18, Lab 3, UKIP 3, Ind 2 (Conservative majority of 2)
Last Ward Election (2009): Lib Dem 1,454 (45%) Con 1,365 (43%) Green 249 (8%) Ind 131 (4%)
Last Ward Election (2009 Notional): Lib Dem 1,687 (46%) Con 1,559 (43%) Green 271 (7%) Ind 151 (4%)

Somerset has always been a Conservative / Liberal Democrat battleground going back as far as 1989. In those elections the Lib Dems (or to give them their proper title the Social and Liberal Democrats) only managed to win 379 council seats and were the largest parties on Gloucestershire and Cornwall councils. In Somerset they were in second place in 1989 but with the Conservatives having an overall majority of 5 there was very little they could do (as was demonstrated at the 1992 general election when Somerset elected just one Liberal Democrat MP in the form of the Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown). However, just twelve months later, the effect of the United Kingdom being thrown out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism on the popularity of the Conservative party was demonstrated when the Conservatives lost eighteen seats across the county with the Liberal Democrats making twenty one gains and with that gaining overall control of the council. They held onto the council in 1997 (held at the same time as the general election when the county of Somerset elected three Liberal Democrats and made Wells and Bridgwater into Conservative marginals). By the 2001 elections (when Taunton was regained by the Conservatives at the general) the Liberal Democrats lost control of the county only to regain it in 2005 (as Taunton flipped to the Liberal Democrats again). However in 2009, the Conservatives sought (and got) revenge for their 1993 defeat by inflicting nine losses on the Liberal Democrats and gaining overall control and making confident predictions that Somerset would elect at least four Conservative MP’s. You can imagine their disappointment then when at the 2010 general election, it was the Liberal Democrats who won four seats in Somerset after gaining Wells from the Conservatives (helped in no small way by a duck house). And with UKIP making their presence felt at the county elections earlier this month, Somerset could now be called a three party battleground (Con, Lib Dem and UKIP) and following those results Coker has the potential to do anything it likes!

Melcombe Regis on Weymouth and Portland (Con Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Con 14, Lab 11, Lib Dem 8, Ind 3 (No Overall Control, Con short by 5)

Local Elections 2010 – 2012

Election Year	2010		2011		2012
Party	Votes	% Share	Votes	% Share	Votes	% Share
Conservatives	938	36%	592	35%	431	33%
Labour			365	21%	239	19%
Liberal Democrats	1,083	42%	748	44%	375	29%
Independents	568	22%
Green Party					243	19%

Weymouth and Portland (named after the seaside town and the local stone) is one of those rare things, a southern council that operates the third rule. As a result we can see how the parties have done going back to the 2003 local elections and those elections were, to be honest, not all that bad for Labour. Yes, the council was hung but Labour had the largest grouping (Lab 13, Lib Dem 11, Con 6, Ind 5) and at those elections was one of only nine southern councils to have Labour as the largest party on the council. So the fact that the following year they made four losses to the Lib Dems three gains was quite galling. As the third Labour term carried on so Labour became more and more unpopular sinking to a low of just four councillors in 2008 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats battling it out for the lead. Since 2010 though, Labour have been recovering and are no doubt planning on becoming the largest party on the council at next year’s local elections, but just as we saw in Somerset UKIP cannot be ruled out of springing more surprises.

Rawmarsh on Rotherham (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Lab 58, Con 4, Ind 1 (Labour majority of 53)

Local Elections 2010 – 2012

Election Year	2010		2011		2012
Party	Votes	% Share	Votes	% Share	Votes	% Share
Conservatives	772	15%	446	15%	328	13%
Labour	2,656	51%	1,911	61%	1,685	66%
UKIP	721	14%	470	15%
BNP	744	14%	327	10%	531	21%
Green Party	292	6%

As was demonstrated in the Rotherham parliamentary by-election, when you have a virtual one party state then people will look for alternative means to protest (which might explain why the BNP polled 8%, Respect 8% and the English Democrats 3%, so therefore I think it’s safe to say that Labour HOLD with some party that only a few people have heard of coming second.