After all the excitement of last Thursday, which saw the worst Conservative performance in a set of local elections since 1995 (25% national projected vote share), Labour make no change on their 2010 local election performance (29% national projected vote share), the Liberal Democrats see thirty three years of local election advances wiped out (14% national projected vote share, only 1% higher than their tally in 1980) and with the help of UKIP, the Others “win” the local elections with a 32% national projected vote share, you might think that “normal service will be resumed”, however with this week’s by-elections being held in Barking and Dagenham, Oldham, Leicester and Thanet, I think normal service is going to have to wait at least a week (possibly even longer)

Longbridge on Barking and Dagenham (Lab Defence)
Last Elections 2010: Labour 51, no opposition
Ward Result 2010:

Name of party	First Candidate’s Vote	Second Candidate’s Vote	Third Candidate’s Vote	Total Vote (and Share)
Conservative	1,221	1,109	316	2,646 (17%)
Labour	3,292	2,900	2,559	8,751 (45%)
Liberal Democrats	1,239			1,239 (17%)
Independents	452	388	369	1,210 (6%)
British National Party	677			677 (9%)
UKIP	383			383 (5%)
Non Party Independent	167			167 (3%)

* % Share as calulated by Andrew Teale of the Local Elections Archive

Barking and Dagenham has always been a Labour stronghold, in fact, I would think you’ve be very hard pressed to find an occasion in modern electoral history where Labour fell below 60% of all the seats on the council. In recent electoral history their worst performance was in 2006 when they only managed to win 39 seats (75% of the total), the rest going to the BNP (11) and the Conservatives (1) both of whom were wiped from the map in 2010 making Barking and Dagenham a one party state. And that’s where the troubles can start. As we have seen already this parliament, one party states are the perfect place for protest votes to become magnified, so although Labour should be fairly confident of holding this, they need to watch out for the person behind them (and given what happened last week, that could well be UKIP)

Alexandra on Oldham (Lab Defence)
Last Elections 2012: Lab 43, Lib Dem 14, Con 2 (Labour majority of 27)
Ward Results 2010 – 2012:

Name of party	Local Elections 2010	Local Elections 2011	Local Elections 2012
Conservative	923 (24%)	625 (23%)	826 (35%)
Labour	1,337 (34%)	1,586 (60%)	1,100 (46%)
Liberal Democrats	815 (21%)	455 (17%)	447 (19%)
Independents	631 (16%)
Non Party Independent	181 (5%)

As we have mentioned before Oldham is a perfect example of what has happened to the Liberal Democrats since entering government, although in this case it appears that the Conservatives are starting to recover from the disaster of the 2011 local elections and are starting to give Labour a run for their money but following the events of last week is that run about to come to a grinding halt?

Abbey on Leicester (Lab Defence)
Last Election 2011: Lab 52, Con 1, Lib Dem 1 (Labour majority of 50)

Name of party	First Candidate’s Vote	Second Candidate’s Vote	Third Candidate’s Vote
Conservative	456	422	333
Labour	1,579	1,542	1,511
Liberal Democrats	230	185	168
UKIP	301	287	207
Liberal Party	479	353

If Oldham has been a disappointment for the Liberal Democrats, then Leicester has been a complete and utter disaster. In the 2003 local elections, the Liberal Democrats won 25 seats on Leicester council becoming the largest party on the council with Labour on 20 and the Conservatives on 9. The following year the Liberal Democrats gained Leicester South in a by-election as part of the continuing wave of anti Iraq war feeling in areas with a high level of interest in overseas affairs and although they lost the seat to Labour at the 2005 general election, they turned it into a marginal. However, come the 2007 local elections all of that was ancient history as Labour made 18 net gains to gain control of the council. The Liberal Democrats suffered nineteen net losses and saw the Conservatives (who made one net loss) overtake them into second. And once the coalition deal was agreed, the die was cast with the 2011 local elections seeing both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats virtually wiped off the face of Leicester politics and turning the city into a virtual one party state.

Cliftonville East on Thanet (Con Defence)
Last Election 2011: Con 27, Lab 26, Ind 3 (No Overall Control, Con short by 2)
Ward Result 2011:

Name of party	First Candidate’s   Vote	Second Candidate’s Vote	Third Candidate’s   Vote
Conservative	1,187	1,165	1,155
Labour	515	490	456
Independents	601	598
Green Party	283

Thanet, ever since the Labour landslide of 1997, has always been a Con / Lab battleground. In 2003, a remarkably good election for the Conservatives they won control of the council by six (Con 31, Lab 23, Lib Dem 1, Ind 1) and yet in 2007 (by general assessments the best Conservative local election result for many a year) they only made two net gains with the Independents taking the most of the spoils. Similarly in 2011, when Labour were having a barnstormer of an election they only managed to make six gains and take the council into a state of No Overall Control. So given the performance of UKIP last week in Kent, could we see another rejection of the Conservatives in a Kent battleground with UKIP emerging victorious?