Ukip surge to record high in first post-local election YouGov/Sun poll
In the first full YouGov poll carried out after the locals UKIP move to highest level with the firm CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 16%
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013
But Farage’s party would still get zero MPs
Feeding tonight’s YouGov into the Electoral Calculus HoCpredictor we get a LAB majority of 108. Ukip on zero seats twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013
The Electoral Calculus Commons seat predictor has been revised to factor in Ukip nd other parties. Check it out here.
Martin Baxter, the former Cambridge and now City Mathematician who runs Electoral Calculus reckons that Ukip need to get to 24% before they starting picking up seats.
This latest YouGov poll is the first on record that has the Tories in the 20s, LAB in the 30s and the LDs in single figures – suggesting that the purple surge is at the expense of all parties.
Mike Smithson
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