The apparent greater enthusiasm amongst Ukip supporters could be reflected in the May 2nd locals where the Tories are the most vulnerable

The apparent greater enthusiasm amongst Ukip supporters could be reflected in the May 2nd locals where the Tories are the most vulnerable

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Just how many seats will the purples win?

The big talking point at last night’s PB gathering at Dirty Dicks in London was how many seats will Ukip pick up in the local elections a week on Thursday.

I know that one or two of those attending agreed wagers and today Shadsy, who was at the party, from Ladbrokes has put up a betting market on the purples chalking up 100+ gains.

    One thing that’s becoming clear is the great enthusiasm for their party that many Ukip supporters seem to have.

That’s reflected in the latest Ipsos-MORI polling featured above where 85% of those saying they’re 100% certain to vote at the next general election which is well ahead of the other parties.

We’ve seen in recent local elections that Ukip is securing an increasing share of the vote as well as picking up seats. In the past seven weeks three have been taken from the Tories.

For me the big consequence of the Ukip surge is not going to be the number of seats but how the syphoning off of support will impact on the Tory performance.

The blues are particularly vulnerable simply because they are defending twice as many seats as Labour and the LDs combined.

Mike Smithson

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