LAB remains an odds-on favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 but don’t rule out Ukip

LAB remains an odds-on favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 but don’t rule out Ukip

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This could be the opportunity for Farage?

There is little doubt that the big story in British electoral politics at the moment is the rise of Ukip.

In recent weeks this has moved from just something that is seen in the polls but to the party doing well in the first past the post elections.

    The second place in Eastleigh ahead of the Tories has marked a change in the political weather and over the past two weeks we have seen Ukip making gains in local by-elections.

One consequence of this is that the Conservative vote is in sharp decline and this is enabling the yellows to make local gains at the expense of the blues while losing badly to the red team. This could be the pattern for the May 2nd elections when the Tories are defending twice as many seats as the LDs and LAB combined.

Ukip say that their main objective will be building up vote share ahead of the 2014 Euro elections when because of the voting system they are well positioned to do very well. In 2009 they came in ahead of Labour and were second behind the Tories.

The joy for Ukip of the party list electoral system used for the Euros is that the election becomes about party brands rather than the individuals who will sit in the EU parliament.

With the possibility of the Sun backing the party then there must be a chance that they could top the poll. That 2/1 that they’ll win most votes could be a good bet.

Mike Smithson

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