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Month: January 2013

A reminder – the main cause of pro-LAB bias in the electoral system is not the boundaries but lower turnout levels in LAB-held seats

A reminder – the main cause of pro-LAB bias in the electoral system is not the boundaries but lower turnout levels in LAB-held seats

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The new boundaries wouldn’t have solved main driver of pro-LAB bias in system – lower turnout in LAB seats. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2013 I’ve published this chart before which is based on data prepared by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University and others after the 2010 general election and seeks to show one of the big drivers of “electoral bias”. The first set of data shows the average electorate in LAB and CON constituencies…

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The boundary changes are nearly dead

The boundary changes are nearly dead

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The unelected “Lords” vote on how MPs are elected. The boundary changes are almost dead. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013 See full BBC report here.

Why my 10-1 bet on the UK leaving the EU is doomed

Why my 10-1 bet on the UK leaving the EU is doomed

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Latest ComRes suggests that even CON voters have little appetite for full withdrawal from EU. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013 Voters might dislike the EU but “full withdrawal” is a step too far With Cameron’s big EU speech only a week or do away there’s been a fair amount of media attention and, of course, more polling. Still when people are asked how they would vote in an “In/Out” referendum the polls suggest an exit…

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Announcing Bercow Betting – the new weekly political market from PaddyPower

Announcing Bercow Betting – the new weekly political market from PaddyPower

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PaddyPower launch a weekly PMQ betting market on number of Bercow interventions.bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013 Bet on how many times the Speaker will intervene at PMQs One of the great problems with political betting is that there is no regular event which you can have a punt on. Almost all the markets are on things that can be months or years ahead. In the past a number of bookies have tred to create weekly markets…

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Ed Miliband shouldn’t have given the undertaking that Ed Balls will remain as shadow chancellor until the election

Ed Miliband shouldn’t have given the undertaking that Ed Balls will remain as shadow chancellor until the election

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Ed Miliband’s biggest mistake today was saying that Ed Balls will stay until the election. This is latest ICM polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013 Poll after poll says it – Balls is a liability For me the big news from Ed Miliband’s Marr interview today was his commitment to keep Ed Balls as shadow chancellor until the general election. Yes it’s hard when an interviewer puts you on the spot like he did – but Ed…

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The Clegg masochism strategy: The first leadership ratings have him up a net 9pc in a week

The Clegg masochism strategy: The first leadership ratings have him up a net 9pc in a week

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Nick Clegg’s net YouGov ratings at best point since March 2012. Now minus 45%. In Sept they were -63%. LBC effect? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013 Today’s net -45% the best in getting of for a year Piles of polling overnight including, as every Sunday morning, the YouGov leadership ratings. Cameron sees a net rise of 1 to minus 18%; Ed Miliband a net increase of 3 to minus 20% and Nick Clegg up 9 to minus…

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As we await another bumper poll for #Ukip – Ladbrokes open a market on the party’s general election vote share

As we await another bumper poll for #Ukip – Ladbrokes open a market on the party’s general election vote share

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Ukip gen election vote share of less than 5% the 5/4 fav on Ladbrokes new UKIP vote share market bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2013 Will the grumpy old white men stick with Farage? Tonight we’ll see what looks like another great poll for Nigel Farage’s party from Opinium for the Observer. In preparation the pollster issued a press release trying to explain the methodological reason why it thought its UKIP numbers were amongst the highest. In…

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Has Rangers Football Club just made Alex Salmonds job harder?

Has Rangers Football Club just made Alex Salmonds job harder?

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BBC news What would pulling out do to the independence debate? Identity is one of the most potent forces in politics; the sense of who we are individually and collectively. That’s why the unusually strongly-worded statement from Rangers’ chief executive this week in response to the football authorities’ proposal there potentially brings two of the stronger identities into conflict: those of nationality and football club support. The threat from Rangers to leave if a restructure leaves them in the bottom…

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