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Month: January 2013

In a way Farage has won but his party could lose support

In a way Farage has won but his party could lose support

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Where does today’s Dave speech leave Farage? What about Ukip’s polling position? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 What happens to Ukip post-Dave speech? There can be little doubt that the rise of Ukip in the polls has played a big part in Dave’s referendum decision. The blue hope must be that some of those CON 2010 voters who’ve shifted will start to return. If that happens then Ukip could see a decline in its poll ratings. Is…

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The Cameron EU speech: Michael Ashcroft gives his verdict

The Cameron EU speech: Michael Ashcroft gives his verdict

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Michael Ashcroft says the more they talk about EU the less likely the Tories have got of a Gen Elect victory twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 Is he right about the dangers for his party? This is from his blog – Lord Ashcroft polls:- “..As I found in my research published last month, Europe is not much of a priority even for those who say they might vote UKIP; the EU is just one of the (many)…

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Time to close down those LAB majority betting positions

Time to close down those LAB majority betting positions

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Cameron’s offer an in/out referendum in 2017/18 could be the defining point of his premiership news.sky.com/story/1041580/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 The key factor is that the Tories will appear unified Whether the offer of an EU in/out referendum in 3-4 years becomes the policy that provides the platform for the Tories to win an overall majority I do not know but I believe today’s big speech will lead to a polling boost to the blues. The…

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With just hours to go before Dave’s big EU speech the January Ipsos-MORI issues index puts concern about the EU at 6 percent

With just hours to go before Dave’s big EU speech the January Ipsos-MORI issues index puts concern about the EU at 6 percent

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Chart from Ipsos MORI showing long term trend in concern of voters about EU twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

When are we going to get some decent general election markets?

When are we going to get some decent general election markets?

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Latest odds from Ladbrokes on number of LD seats.bit.ly/c5gpH6. See here twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2013 Why are the bookies being so tardy? Within just six days of the 2005 general election seat markets were opened on the following race. Interestingly looking back at my post the opening spreads were: LAB 325-335: CON 226-232: LD 54-60. Those who were brave enough to bet on the Tories in May 2005 did very well indeed. Interestingly the mid-point for…

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New academic study says that in 2010 LD incumbents cost Dave the chance to govern alone

New academic study says that in 2010 LD incumbents cost Dave the chance to govern alone

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How much will it be different in 2015? New academic work that has just been published shows that LD MPs have in the past enjoyed extremely large incumbency advantages on a level with those of US congressmen, This is said to have been worth between 5% and 15%. LAB and CON MPs, by contrast, had incumbency advantages of about 2% and 1% respectively. The report, published in Electoral Studies by Timothy Hallam Smith of the University of Nottingham, estimates that…

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The latest ICM phone poll finds that the LAB lead is down 3 to just 5 percent

The latest ICM phone poll finds that the LAB lead is down 3 to just 5 percent

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LAB lead down to 5% in the January ICM poll.m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2013 CON 1% ahead with men but 16% behind with women With a record for accuracy and polling innovation going back over two decades the telephone survey by ICM for the Guardian is the polling event of the month. The firm is widely regarded as “the gold standard”. The latest numbers just published see the LDs edging back up 2 to 15%, the…

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MacShane, Dave’s big EU speech and the #Plebgate report

MacShane, Dave’s big EU speech and the #Plebgate report

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Three dramatic headlines on the BBC’s main politics news page. bbc.co.uk/news/politics/ twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2013 The big political headlines this lunchtime Number 10 has been wise to waste no time in re-fixing Dave’s big EU speech which should have been given in the Netherlands on Friday. Unless the briefings have been very much off target we’ve got a fair idea already what’s in it – a promise for a post 2015 referendum after the completion of…

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