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Month: January 2013

LAB could win an overall majority with not much more than a third of the national vote

LAB could win an overall majority with not much more than a third of the national vote

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Given the way that the electoral system works in LAB’s favour then any maj price longer than evens looks like value twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2013 Why I’m now betting on a LAB majority AndyJS, who’s done a splendid job on the US election, has produced an online spread-sheet showing Labour’s target seats for the election. It’s presented well with a lot of good data and links and I’ve little doubt that we’ll be referring to it…

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Two months after the election the #WH2012 votes are finally counted and we can announce the PB-William Hill winners

Two months after the election the #WH2012 votes are finally counted and we can announce the PB-William Hill winners

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Congratulations to Cityunslicker who takes the top slot When the William Hill/Politicalbetting White House race prediction competition was announced in September nobody could have envisaged that we would have to wait for two months after the election before getting a final outcome. Entrants were asked simply to predict, down to two decimal points, who the winning candidate would be and the size of the winning margin. On the night it looked as though an Obama popular vote lead of about…

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CON in lead in local by-elections in 2012 with Ukip on 6.13 percent

CON in lead in local by-elections in 2012 with Ukip on 6.13 percent

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Aggregate vote shares from all 198 local by-elections in 2012 show: CON 33.74: LAB 29.22: LD 19.15: UKIP 6.13 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 1, 2013 Thanks to Harry Hayfield for the data. It is important to note that not all parties contest each local council by election and that they do not, of themelves, constitute a representative sample of voters. By-elections take place whenever there is a need to replace a sitting councillor and this means that aggregates,…

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How well did YOU do predicting what would happen in 2012?

How well did YOU do predicting what would happen in 2012?

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How PBers got 2012 right and wrong The PB 2012 Prediction Competition Results It goes without saying that 2012 was an extraordinarily busy year – not only with the Olympics and the Jubilee, but politically it was pretty crammed too. The US election dominated the year, but there were plenty of elections elsewhere, with France, Russia, Mexico, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea – and two in Greece. The UK weighed in with the London Mayor contest, the locals, and no…

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