What will UKIP’s national vote share be at the next general election? 0-3% 4-5% 6-7% 8-9% 10% or more &n bsp; Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
How much does the UK’s Triple-A credit rating matter? The announcement earlier this week from Fitch – one of the three big credit ratings agencies – that the UK’s triple-A credit rating was only just consistent with the government debt levels projected in the Autumn Statement raises again the prospect that at some point soon, one or other of the will cut it. In one sense – the practical matter of borrowing money – such a move probably would make…
What if they fall short of a majority? It’s that time of the year again when Labour MPs wonder out loud how to approach the Liberal Democrats. What might seem irrelevant internal machinations can be revealing and have implications for 2015 in the case of a hung parliament. This week there has been a new grouping created, oddly called Labour for Democracy. It has little to directly do with democracy other than encourage the party to work with other ‘progressive’…
Can George convince us that lower tax rates produce a higher yield. Will the polls turn for the Tories? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2012 When will the Tories get back to their pre-March 2012 budget polling position with ICM – a 3% lead? Before June 30th 2013 Before December 31st 2013 Before June 30th 2014 Before December 31st 2014 Before May 7th 2015 Not until after the general election For me the most signficant feature…
UKIP’S shares in last 5 YouGov polls amongst the 60+ age have been 17, 17, 13, 19 and 18. 60+ most likely to vote &least likely to change. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012 The 60+ age group in today’s YouGov had CON 35%: LAB 35%: LD 9%: UKIP 17% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012 UKIP still in double figures in latest YouGov: CON 32%, LAB 44%, LD 9%, UKIP 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6,…
A LAB majority no longer the favourite on Betfair’s General Election market. Data based on latest matched bets twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012 LAB slips out of the top slot The above show the latest prices matched on the three main options on Betfair’s general election markets. This marks something of a change because over the past few months Labour has been favourite with the price reaching a 41%. Note that I am converting Betfair decmimal odds…
How the Financial Times sums up Osborne’s statement twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 And the Guardian twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
Ed Miliband doesn’t look too pleased with his Shadow Chancellor’s performance twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 His “next chancellor” price moves out to 2/1 The main betting market response to today’s autumn statement has been an easing in the price of Ed Balls in the next chancellor market. Ladbrokes had him as 6/4 favourite which has now moved out to 2/1. Amongst other LAB figures in the betting up and coming 2010 newbie, Rachel Reeves, has moved…