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Month: November 2012

Marf for the afternoon thread… + election and betting news

Marf for the afternoon thread… + election and betting news

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. I’m getting a few reports that PCC election turnout not quite as low as was being predicted. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2012 @msmithsonpb I wonder how many have been placed my campaigns too boost their odds? — Paul Smith Bristol (@bristolpaul) November 15, 2012 @bristolpaul They thought George Galloway was doing that in Bradford by-election & the bookies lost a packet. —…

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Your guide to betting on the BBC next Director-General

Your guide to betting on the BBC next Director-General

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The PB guide to betting on the race for the next BBC Director-General www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53725 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2012 Who is going to take over from George Entwistle? Barely four months after bookies settled bets on the last race, the runners and riders are once again under starter’s orders for the BBC Director General stakes. The new race has started with speculation that external candidates are favoured. The new broom logic is stronger than ever but, with…

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The PCC elections: the party machines will prevail

The PCC elections: the party machines will prevail

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Tomorrow the big party machines will prevail in the police commissioner elections. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53712 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2012 The chances for the indies aren’t very high When the idea of elected Police and Crime Commissioners was being mooted one of the hopes that it would attract independent candidates without party allegiance. It certainly has done that but because of the very limited opportunity for individuals to get their message across this has proved challenging. Simply getting a…

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Tomorrow’s only interesting bet – whether UKIP will get more votes than the LDs in Corby

Tomorrow’s only interesting bet – whether UKIP will get more votes than the LDs in Corby

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UKIP strong FAV at Corby to beat LDs. With LAB such a certainty this is the only interesting bet. bit.ly/u6wr8r twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2012 After my plea yesterday for more betting markets for tomorrow elections William Hill has put a few up. I can’t see any other victor than LAB though the 1/100 is hardly tempting. The Tories, who won the seat at the general election, are not going to lose their deposit. So the only…

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Tory anti-wind farm campaigners have a long way to go winning CON voter support let alone the general public

Tory anti-wind farm campaigners have a long way to go winning CON voter support let alone the general public

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How the general public and CON voters specifically view wind farms. YouGov Oct 19 2012. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2012 Shouldn’t Tories back their leader on renewable energy? On the eve of the Corby by-election a secretly filmed video has been made public showing that the CON MP, Chris Heaton-Harris, managing the Tory campaign was supporting the abortive candidature of the Telegraph’s James Delingpole. This is a hugely serious issue in any party and Heaton-Harris…

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Calling the bookmakers – what about some interesting markets for Thursday’s elections?

Calling the bookmakers – what about some interesting markets for Thursday’s elections?

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@emcg67The competition for voters’ attention in mid-Beds. The first electoral test for Nadine?? twitter.com/EMcG67/status/… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2012 What about the Nadine effect in her area? Thursday will see the second biggest set of elections in the UK before the general election. The party machines are now getting wound up for the 41 Police and Crime Commissioner elections, the Bristol mayor, three Westminster by-elections an a whole host of small votes. In Bedfordshire the Tory campaign has…

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Trust in BBC journalists declines sharply – but still ahead of every other sector of the media

Trust in BBC journalists declines sharply – but still ahead of every other sector of the media

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Great table from YouGov on their “Trust Tracker”.Though there’s been a big decline BBC journos still most trusted twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2012 The polling impact of recent traumatic events Some interesting data published by YouGov which it calls its “TrustTracker”. Inevitably given the current series of issues the BBC was going to take a hit but what is also interesting is how most of the other media has also shown a decline. I love getting data…

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YouGov suggests that turnout in the PCC elections is going to be higher than expected. Time to bet?

YouGov suggests that turnout in the PCC elections is going to be higher than expected. Time to bet?

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If YouGov’s finding on likely turnout in Thursday’s PCC election is correct then taking the 5/6 at 20%+ is a good bet twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2012 Should we be a bit cautious about the findings? Ladbrokes have adjusted their PCC elections turnout bet following the YouGov poll at the weekend that had 28% in the areas where elections will be held saying they were 10/10 certain to vote. On the face of it this makes the…

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