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Month: November 2012

Just about Labour’s best PCC result was the victory in Bedfordshire – the Nadine effect?

Just about Labour’s best PCC result was the victory in Bedfordshire – the Nadine effect?

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Bedfordshire was LAB’s best PCC result. At the gen election it was 17% behind. The Nadine effect? www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53787 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2012 At the 2010 general election the aggregate vote in the Bedfordshire police authority area was CON 44.91 LAB 27.28 LD 20.7 yet on Thursday Labour managed to win the Police Commissioner vote in what looks like its best result nationally. Interestingly turnout was higher in the urban areas of Luton and Bedford compared with…

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November 15th 2012 – A slap in the face for politics

November 15th 2012 – A slap in the face for politics

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What are we to make of the dismal turnout? The November 2012 elections were meant to go down in history as the start of a brave new era of direct democracy. They will go down in history but not for that reason. The May referendums put the first dent in the plan, when all the cities bar Bristol voted down the mayoral option. The second, and more significant, hit was delivered by the mass abstentions on Thursday. While a low…

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How the supplementary vote electoral system deprived the first-past-the-post winner, John Prescott, of victory

How the supplementary vote electoral system deprived the first-past-the-post winner, John Prescott, of victory

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How “first past the post” winner Prescott became a loser. The 2nd preferences splitagainst him. bbc.in/UvwQ5L twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2012 Only problem John: YOUR government designed this system in 2000 Looking at the outcome in Humberside you can perhaps forgive John Prescott for being so angry about the voting system. For if this had operated on first past the post he would have been celebrating his victory tonight. I wonder whether he recalls how in the…

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LAB moves to its best position yet in the general election betting

LAB moves to its best position yet in the general election betting

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Betfair punters now make LAB a 40.7% chance of securinga general election majority.Tories drop to 22.2%. NOM on 38.2% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2012 And the Tories slump to their worst position After a dramatic day of elections the Betfair market now rates the chances of a Labour majority government at just over 40%. The party had been joint favourite with “no overall majority” (NOM) prior to these latest results. The big message from Corby is that…

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The counts continue…

The counts continue…

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Afactor driving the low turnout in the #PCCwas that there was virtually no national media coverage because no election in London — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2012 “Bugger off!” Prescott tells waiting journalists — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) November 16, 2012 PCS union says low PCC turnout “should sound death knell for Tory-led cries for thresholds for union ballots” – bit.ly/UKftOM — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) November 16, 2012

At least there shouldn’t be that many votes to count…

At least there shouldn’t be that many votes to count…

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@paulwaugh This morning at York Priory Street Centre there were more people queuing to give blood than vote twitter.com/jmalexander198… — James Alexander (@jmalexander1982) November 15, 2012 It looks good for LAB but not that good With a huge number of elections on different sorts taking place yesterday the focus overnight and now is on the counts and the pitifully low turnouts. Two Westminster by-elections counted which have been held by LAB with biggish swings to them. But Manchester Central and…

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Just how low will the #PCC turnouts go?

Just how low will the #PCC turnouts go?

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On Wednesday you could have got 5/6 with Ladbrokes that #PCC turnout would have been lower than 20% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2012 PCC Elections: Electoral Commission say low turnout as low as 10 p/c in some areas and “a comedy of errors”! #PCC — Christine Elmer (@ChristineElmer) November 16, 2012 2 votes registered at a polling station in Wales for the #PCC elections ht.ly/fkDcy — Alistair Sloan (@alistair_sloan) November 16, 2012 Good link for #PCC election results:…

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LAB moves to 46 percent – 14 points ahead of the Tories and its best position for nearly a decade

LAB moves to 46 percent – 14 points ahead of the Tories and its best position for nearly a decade

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But all three leaders see ratings improvements New Ipsos-MORI telephone pollhas CON 32 (-1); LAB 46 (+3); LD (nc). So LAB takes a 14% lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2012 The details from the latest MORI poll showing how all 3 leaders have seen marked net increases twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2012 Unlike cheapie online polls I regard the four phone surveys that we get each month as an event. The one out today is…

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