Betfair punters now make LAB a 40.7% chance of securinga general election majority.Tories drop to 22.2%. NOM on 38.2% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2012

And the Tories slump to their worst position

After a dramatic day of elections the Betfair market now rates the chances of a Labour majority government at just over 40%. The party had been joint favourite with “no overall majority” (NOM) prior to these latest results.

The big message from Corby is that in CON-LAB battlegrounds that former Lib Dem voters appear much more ready to switch to Labour than the Tories.

This was seen in the pre-election polling and has been bone out by what happened yesterday.

UKIP have done well in this by-election and in some of the PCC elections though it’s a moot point whether they would remain supporting Farage’s party on the same scale in a general election when the government of the country is at stake.

We saw in 2005 and 2010 how UKIP support got squeezed in general elections.

My guess is that the Tories will focus on the UKIP threat rather than aiming for ex-Lib Dem voters which probably will be a mistake.

Mike Smithson

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