A Marf prediction cartoon and the PB-William Hill White House competition
This cartoon on forecasting the US election will be going up on Politicalbetting.com later. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2012
How do you think you are going to do?
Election day and thanks to Marf for her cartoon on Nate Silver.
As many will recall thanks to the generosity of William Hill we were able to launch in September the 2012 White House Race prediction competition.
All you had to do was guess the vote share winner gap,down to two decimal points, of your selection
There are 3 prizes of £500, £350 and £150 in free bets for the closest predictions. Entries closed a couple of days later and now we must wait on tonight’s outcome.
You can check the full list of entries on the thread here.
Clearly a lot has happened since September not least the revival in Mitt Romney’s fortunes following the first debate on October 3rd.
-
Looking over the entries my guess is that there’s been a fair amount of overshoot with Obama and that it will be much closer than it looked at the end of September.
How confident are you about your prediction now?
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK