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Month: October 2012

Making sense of the Gallup 7 percent Romney lead

Making sense of the Gallup 7 percent Romney lead

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Gallup used to be the Gold Standard. No more. They need to get busy & solve their problems. — Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) October 19, 2012 Top GOP pollster on Gallup’s 7-pt Romneylead nationally among likely voters: “There is nothing I am looking at that resembles that data.” — John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 18, 2012 Simply put, if Romney were up 7, he’d be advertising in PA, MI, OR, CT and wouldn’t spend a dime in FL. — Sean Trende (@SeanTrende)…

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If Romney is, as Gallup report, 7 points ahead nationally then now might be the moment to start spread betting

If Romney is, as Gallup report, 7 points ahead nationally then now might be the moment to start spread betting

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If the Gallup 7% Romney lead is right then make money spread betting. Latest ECV spreads bit.ly/XszSeY twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2012 So far in this White House race we haven’t mentioned the spread betting markets which are a high risk high return form of punting. The basic feature is simple – the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. My experience of spread betting on…

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Scotland’s most accurate pollster suggests that Alex Salmond’s magic might be on the wane

Scotland’s most accurate pollster suggests that Alex Salmond’s magic might be on the wane

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Ipsos-MORI blows for Alex Salmond/SNP/YES in the week the referendum deal was signed. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2012 In the week that the referendum deal was signed…. There’s a new Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll for the Times this morning that has support for independence declining, the SNP’s Holyrood vote share down, and a reduction in Alex Salmond’s approval ratings. Independence At the start of 2012 the firm, which came top of the 2011 Holyrood polling accuracy table, recorded…

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As the 1922 committee meets the odds tighten to 4-6 that Andrew Mitchell will NOT survive the month

As the 1922 committee meets the odds tighten to 4-6 that Andrew Mitchell will NOT survive the month

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William now make it a 4/6 chance that Andrew Mitchell will go this months and an 11/10 one that he won’t twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2012 Senior Tory tells me Mitchell is a “dead man walking”. He “walked into the Members’ Dining Room at lunchtime on his own, looking miserable”. — joncraigSKY (@joncraig) October 17, 2012 Member of ’22 Exec arriving for crisis meeting on Mitchell ahead of main meeting of MPs told me: “A lot of…

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After the Downing Street catfight and the 2nd White House debate, the focus turns to the 1st post-PlebGate PMQs

After the Downing Street catfight and the 2nd White House debate, the focus turns to the 1st post-PlebGate PMQs

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Dave looks set to staunchly defend his man It’s extraordinary to think that the whole Andrew Mitchell affair broke four weeks ago and yet the story still has legs. So far Dave has stuck by his Chief Whip which is in character. We’ve seen time and time again that he doesn’t operate like his predecessors whenever ministers get into trouble and keeps people on-board even though they have become damaged goods. No doubt Ed Miliband and Labour will have their…

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The second debate starts with a big boost for Obama from YouGov

The second debate starts with a big boost for Obama from YouGov

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Big swing-state boost for Obama from YouGov These are the latest swing state polls including a big batch from YouGov. Colorado: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (We Ask America) Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (YouGov) Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (YouGov) Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America) Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov) Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (YouGov) New Hampshire: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Suffolk) North Carolina: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (YouGov) Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)…

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