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Month: October 2012

LAB jumps six points in ComRes phone poll

LAB jumps six points in ComRes phone poll

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LAB jumps 6% to 44% in new ComRes phone poll. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2012 The party’s 44% is the best with the firm since the election Labour has moved into its biggest lead over the Conservatives since the general election, according to a ComRes telephone poll for the Independent. David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne are also seen as out of touch with ordinary people by two-thirds of voters. The survey put CON 33%(-2):…

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Mayor Mallon could give Miliband a Migraine in Middlesbrough

Mayor Mallon could give Miliband a Migraine in Middlesbrough

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Henry G Manson on a possible 2nd LAB by-election defeat There have been a very strong series of by-elections taking place in Labour – held seats over the last couple of years. More than I can recall. This puts a little pressure on the Labour side to win handsomely each time. The Corby by-election has been the exception and gives the party a chance to chalk up a thumping win in a seat the party must win in 2015 if…

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Punters still rate the White House race as a 67-33 chance to Obama

Punters still rate the White House race as a 67-33 chance to Obama

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White House punters are sticking firmly with Obama – see chart for Romney price moves of past 7 days twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2012 On Betfair alone there have been £11m of matched bets The chart is simply showing the Romney price on Betfair expressed as an implied probability. As can be seen that apart from the Romney bounce on Wednesday ahead of what turned out to be the non-announcement from Donald Trump, things have been static….

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The latest swing stake polling suggests that the battle is getting very tight

The latest swing stake polling suggests that the battle is getting very tight

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The latest POLITICO swing state map showing how tight this is gettinggoo.gl/7nHNu twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 New Ohio phone poll has Obama and Romney level. See pic @politicalwire twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB

The change in public opinion that the blues should most fear: The return of the “Toxic Tories”

The change in public opinion that the blues should most fear: The return of the “Toxic Tories”

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The rise of Tory toxicity? Ipsos-MORI data from 2007-2012 showing like and dislike of the Conservative party. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 Over the last couple of days there’s been a lot of focus on the Ipsos-MORI finding that more people now dislike David Cameron than like him. The same polling also produced findings on like and dislike of the Conservative party itself which were, perhaps, more worrying for the party. The chart above based on Ipsos-MORI…

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The White House paradox: Romney’s lead in the national RCP aveage gets wider but Obama becomes a firmer favourite

The White House paradox: Romney’s lead in the national RCP aveage gets wider but Obama becomes a firmer favourite

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The one certainty is that this is very tight Embedded above is the latest national polling average from Real Clear politics which has Romney edging further ahead and in doing so magnifying the paradox of this campaign. For the betting markets where punters invest real money on the outcome are moving even further to the incumbent. Until this morning it was still possible to get 1/2 on Obama on Betfair but that’s now at 0.46/1. One thing we do know…

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A new book on Osborne could open up the sores about why the Tories failed to win a majority

A new book on Osborne could open up the sores about why the Tories failed to win a majority

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“Cameron insisted that his own image dominate” this disastrous 2010 poster according to new book bit.ly/S1WWgD twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 27, 2012 How the last seven years have been seen by George Patrick O’Flynn in the Daily Express is reporting this morning that a new book on George Osborne by writer Janan Ganesh, could be damaging to David Cameron. According to O’Flynn the chancellor emerges as a towering figure “while the shortcomings of Dave” are dealt with at…

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With just 10 days of campaigning left for Mitt Romney punters seem to think that he’s a loser

With just 10 days of campaigning left for Mitt Romney punters seem to think that he’s a loser

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The betting sentiment continues to move against Mitt Romney. See pic for how his Betfair price has changed. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012 Meanwhile the ad onslaught in the swing states continues In past month there have been 58,235 political TV ads in Ohio. To watch them all continuously would take 80 days.is.gd/jv1DW5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012 Latest swing state polls Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (OnSight Public Affairs) Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46%…

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