The one certainty is that this is very tight

Embedded above is the latest national polling average from Real Clear politics which has Romney edging further ahead and in doing so magnifying the paradox of this campaign.

For the betting markets where punters invest real money on the outcome are moving even further to the incumbent. Until this morning it was still possible to get 1/2 on Obama on Betfair but that’s now at 0.46/1.

One thing we do know is that a tight election which could go either way makes it especially attractive to political punters

This absorbing market with that betting exchange alone has chalked up £10,667,007 worth of matched bets making it almost certain that it will be the firm’s biggest political market ever.

Other bookies and spread firms have also reported high levels of activity.

My money remains on Obama but I remain cautious about going all in on him.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK

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