Two years on and he’s the most secure of the three

September 25th 2010 is a date I remember fondly. I’d made a big call a couple of days earlier that Ed was going to beat his brother Dave in the leadership contest and so it happened – albeit by the tightest of margins.

I had EdM bets ranging downwards from 33/1 and my winnings on that day were enough to buy a brand new car.

For much of the period that followed there was continued speculation about how long he’d stay there. Well he’s got to the two year point and he’s now the most secure of the three main party leaders. His Labour conference next week won’t be like the LDs this week and the Tory conference in a fortnight – leadership speculation is not driving the narrative.

The big pollsters are not including alternatives to Ed in their named leader questions. There is no equivalent to Boris and Vince hovering in the background.

In terms of the numbers Ed has seen the Labour lead grow and grow in recent months culminating in the latest ICM poll which, for the first time in nine years has a Labour lead in double figures.

Yet somehow he hasn’t quite captured the hearts of Labour voters in the way that David Cameron continues to do with the Tories. Ed, of course, is miles ahead of Nick Clegg who sees yet another set of very poor numbers in the ComRes online survey for ITV news.

If the polling and betting is to be believed then Ed looks set to be PM in May 2015. That’s when his troubles will really start.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB