Are the Tories mis-reading the threat from Farage? I’ve just come across some intriguing polling that was tucked away in a post on the Coffee House website last month by the Speccie’s James Forsyth, In it he reported on a series of “calm the nerves” briefing sessions that are being held at Number 10 for groups of a dozen or so Tory back-benchers. Part of this is a presentation by the ex-Populus boss who is now Number 10’s strategy director,…
And also the ComRes TRUTH LEAGUE A second phone poll in a week has good news for the Lib Dems. Last Tuesday ICM had Clegg’s party up 3 to 14%. Tonight ComRes has them up 4 to 14% – a level they last touched in February. This follows yesterday’s ICM Wisdom poll where respondents are asked to guess the general election shares for the main parties. This had 32/39/17. Also from ComRes there is an online poll for ITV news…
Could the blues split themselves once again over the EU? If Dave thought that his Sunday Telegraph article on an EU referendum was going to deal with the growing pressure he was wrong. All it has done is open up new lines of attack and the weekend strategy looks as though it could have been a mistake. One of his beaten opponents in the 2005 leadership contest who became the first Tory to leave the cabinet, Liam Fox, has gone…
Could Mitt time as CEO be crucial in November? The big polling picture for November’s White House election is that Obama and Romney are running pretty close to each in what, in the parlance of US elections coverage, are described as “statistical ties”. But those polls are national ones and, as we all know, the outcome will be determined by individual state battles which in almost every case allocate their electoral college votes on a first past the post basis….
Welcome to the PB NightHawks Cafe Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Plus some other points from the polls Labour lead by 7 in SunTel/ICM ‘Wisdom Index’ poll Lab 38 (-1), Con 31 (-) LD 17 (+1) Voters asked to predict gen elex result — Patrick Hennessy (@PatJHennessy) July 1, 2012 @Joga5 In its final unpublished 2010 general election poll ICM says its Wisdom Index was more accurate than any of the pollsters — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2012 @MSmithsonPB ICM/Guardian pre-adjusted [Table 2] (vs wisdom) – Lib 12 (-5), Lab…
Will the time ever be right for it to be held? The big political news overnight is that Dave has said in an article under his name in the Telegraph that he’ll consider a referendum on the UK’s EU relationship. But there’s a catch. This will only happen when the time is right. To agree with the principle of doing something but with a caveat on the timing is the classic ruse used by politicians through the ages. The article…