What is your assessment of the chances of the next general election being fought on the new boundaries?
	A 0-20% chance
	21-40%
	41-60%
	61-80%
	81-100%

Will the blues get their 20 seat bonus?

There’s one issue that’s going to dominate politics over the next year or so following last week’s Tory backbench rebellion on the government’s Lords reform plan.

By October 2013 the planned boundary changes for the 2015 general election will have been finalised and it will require an affirmative vote by the commons for them to take effect.

Not all Tory MPs will be supportive – those who see the changes putting an end to their parliamentary careers might be resistant even though overall the moves will be beneficial to the party.

What the Lib Dems do will be crucial with Labour almost certain to oppose.

So what do you think – What are the chances of this going through?

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

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