Is this a case where the betting is predictive?

The government is odds-on to avoid defeat in the Commons on the Lords’ timetable motion according to Ladbrokes.

The book opened at an entirely level 5/6 each of two but all the money so far is against the defeat, forcing the price into 4/5.

Those who think the government will lose can take bigger odds of evens.

It also remains odds-on at 1/2 that no direct elections for the House of Lords will take place before 2016.

A spokesman said: “All the money says the government will cling on in Commons this week. The only racing certainty appears to be that this won’t be sorted out in a hurry.”

What this sounds like is that a lot of insider money is being bet.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB