Will opposing really be “an interesting career” move?

In what sounds a rather sinister move a Number 10 spokesman has said that those Tory MPs who rebel on the Lords reform proposal will be making “an interesting career move”. That sounds a bit Mafiosi.

The problem about being fierce is that it could be counter-productive – though with a possible ministerial re-shuffle in the offing aspiring ministers might not be too keen on upsetting the boss.

Clearly Cameron is totally focused on the boundary change plan which lowers the bar by four or five points on what Tory vote share would produce a majority.

If he and his ministers are not seen to be active enough in promoting the upper house bill then the Lib Dems might not support the new electoral map.

Given how crucial the boundaries are to the next election outcome it is surprising that there are not options on the betting markets. The only one I can see is from PaddyPower which has 2/5 on a 600 seat house of commons and 5/4 against there being no change.

At the moment I cannot read it and even if this gets through the commons it’s hard to see the Lords voting this through.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB