Would Phillip Hammond be best placed to become leader&PM?

These have been a bloody few weeks for David Cameron. One problem seems to have piled on another and his personal poll ratings and those of his party have plummeted.

What if the narrative continues and there seem few signs of improvement?

What if Labour’s double digit poll leads continue and the idea takes hold that the dream of a Tory majority simply isn’t going to happen and that the most likely outcome is a return of Labour?

What if we reach a point where the Conservatives do what they’ve done in the past and ditch a leader perceived to be a loser?

It is a sign of the times that Ladbrokes is offering what to me is a skinny 7/1 that Dave will be out before the year end.

If Dave did have to step down before the general election then my choice for next Tory leader and PM would be the defence secretary, Phillip Hammond. Unlike most of those close to the PM Hammond is in his mid-50s, went to a state school, and had a successful career outside politics before becoming an MP.

It would be hard for Nadine Dorries to pin the label “posh” on him.

Of the Tory front bench team he is one of the few that gives an air of confidence and sure-footedness. In the past few days he’s had a very good week on defence issues and is an effective communicator.

Of the alternatives Boris is not an MP and went to Eton; Osborne, also public school and the Bullington club, has been too associated with Cameron and David Davis is not a minister.

I was going to end suggesting that you have a Hammond bet. Ladbrokes, amazingly now make him the 10/1 third favourite for the leadership. As I write there’s nothing available on Betfair though PaddyPower have a tempting 33/1 against him being next PM. If, unlike me, you can make a decent size bet with the Irish bookie then it’s worth a punt.

@MikeSmithsonOGH