Betfair

At what stage will the market switch?

After being totally hammered in the local elections you would expect that punters would take a fresh look at the chances of the Tories winning most seats at the next general election.

The panel above gives the prices at 0824 this morning with a price of 1.88 (that’s 0.88/1 in real money) on the Conservatives winning most seats. The blues have been solid favourites since the market was set up after the 2010 general election though it has been shifting a bit to LAB.

I wonder how long this will remain? Will the widespread perception that the party will come on top again change after yesterday’s elections?

Like their coalition partners, the LDs, overnight the Tories were absolutely hammered by Labour. Not only were having to cope with the red onslaught but in ward after ward where there was a UKIP candidate they saw their share hit even more.

A year ago the Tories were able to more than make up their losses to Labour by winning a pile of seats from the Lib Dems. From the results seen overnight it’s clear that that is not going to happen again. Instead in CON-LD fights the yellows have the edge and look set to be net winners against the Tories.

Worryingly for the blues from a general election perspective Clegg’s party has been doing well in the areas where they have MPs and face the Tories. The one council where the LDs lost control was Cambridge where Labour is the main opponent.

The hope for 2015, of course, is that the economy will have turned by then. Possibly but there is far less time left.

@MikeSmithsonOGH