2008 Mayoral Polls	Date	BORIS CON %	KEN LAB %	PADDICK %
Actual Result	01/05/08	42	36	10
You Gov	01/05/08	43	36	13
You Gov	28/04/08	46	35	12
MRUK/Sunday Times	27/04/08	43	44	9
Ipsos MORI/Unison	24/04/08	38	41	12
YouGov	18/04/08	44	37	12
MRUK/Sunday Times	14/04/08	44	45	9
YouGov	11/04/08	45	39	12

Which will be closer YouGov or Populus?

The polls, as I am sure we are all aware, are divided over the London mayoral outcome. Three of them, Populus, and ComRes and Survation, are reporting first preference leads for Boris, of 12%, than 9% and 11.2%. That compares with YouGov which yesterday had a Boris 1st round preference lead of just 3%.

It was the same story in 2008. Then three pollsters were covering the race and only YouGov was showing Boris victory. YouGov had also been the top pollster in the Capital in 2004 also getting the final outcome to within one percent.

Four years ago I bet as much as I could on a Boris victory because the form-book pointed to YouGov being the best at this election. I was right.

In 2012 you have, I believe, got to give the benefit of the doubt to the pollster with the with the “form” on the particular course.

The divide might not be as stark when we get the final surveys.

The disappointing Ipsos-MORI outcome four years ago caused it to have a fundamental review of its methodology and new processes were put in place a couple of months later.

@MikeSmithsonOGH