Is another messy caucus outcome in the offing?
On Saturday night the Maine Republican party announced that Mitt Romney had won the caucuses in the state by a margin of 194 votes over Ron Paul.
Extraordinarily the result was announced even though voting in one part of the state, Washington county, had to be be postponed because the weather forecasts were suggesting heavy snow. The deferred election takes place this Saturday.
Now the enthusiastic band of Ron Paul supporters are working hard to try to make up the back-log. If they do it could, like in Iowa, put State party officials in a tricky position.
The Paul backers have got a big task on their hands but there’s no doubt they are motivated. The New York Times election analyst, Nate Silver, has observed that in 2008 just 113 people voted in the county and only eight of them for Ron Paul.
Silver noted that there are 6,907 registered Republicans in the County, and another 8,247 unaffiliated registered voters so that Team Paul have a fair bit to go at. The question is whether they can achieve it.
If the 194 vote gap is overhauled then it could take some of the gloss off Mitt’s Saturday victory – the only one he’s had this month.
Betfair settled the Maine market on the basis of the first announcement. I had Â£40 at stake but unlike Iowa I’m not going to quibble.