The chart shows Betfair’s changing prices on which party will win the November White House race. The graph says it all – since the Republican nomination started in the first week of January the betting has moved more and more towards Barack Obama and, as I write, the price is 8/15.

There have recently been one or two good pieces of economic news for the White House The latest unemployment numbers were a real positive.

A big factor, though, is the difficulty that the Republican party has with its range of potential nominees. The talk of a bokered convention in which “none of the above” gets the prize is increasing.

If it is, as I still think, Romney then so much has come out in this campaign which will be flung back at him when the White House Race proper starts.

I’m making sure that I maintain long positions on Daniels, Christie and Jeb Bush – all of whom have been mentioned as potential gap fillers.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH